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Why rupee tanked to historic low?

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2 years ago

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The Pakistani rupee lost over Rs14, or 5%, against the US dollar in the outgoing week as the cash-strapped economy spirals deeper into a financial crisis amid challenges like looming debt default, shortage of dollars, unsustainable spending, uncontrolled inflation, and nine-year low foreign reserves.

Earlier during the week, the local unit advanced from a record low as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team began negotiations with Pakistan over the resumption of its $6.5 billion bailout programme; however, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s rather concerning comments regarding the ongoing parleys sent the currency market reeling.

The PM on Friday said the Fund review mission was giving Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and his team a “very tough time” in the talks —  expected to conclude on February 9.

Following his comments, the market panicked and the rupee devalued by 1.89% (or Rs5.22) to a new all-time low of Rs276.58 against the US dollar on Friday compared to Thursday’s close of Rs271.38.

Cumulatively, the rupee slumped 3.14% (or Rs8.69) in three days, compared to Wednesday’s close of Rs267.89 — the rupee recovered as crucial talks with the Washington-based lender resumed.

Tresmark, in its weekly currency commentary, noted that the rupee fell sharply last week from 264 per dollar to 278.50.

“It seemed to have stabilised around the 270 level, until the prime minister and finance minister spoke out,” the financial terminal for real-time market rates, news, charts, financial data, and technical analysis stated.

It added that when PM Shehbaz said that the IMF was imposing harsh conditions and when the finance czar said they were looking for philanthropists for billions of dollars, “traders assumed that the leadership was still looking for avenues other than IMF or that they would waste more time in negotiating with them.”

“However, in our assessment, the premier may have been only trying to prepare other stakeholders and vote base for harsh steps and measures,” Tresmark said, adding that another important factor behind the rupee’s downfall was the steep decline in total reserves of the country which are now at $8.7 billion (down by $712 million).

PM Shehbaz is battling to keep the economy afloat amid dollar shortages, and political tensions deepen.

Pakistan — with a $350 billion economy — is seeking a crucial instalment of $1.1 billion from the lender of the last resort to avoid default.

Tresmark mentioned that until and unless traders don’t feel confident about things getting better, especially the situation of reserves, the rupee would continue to fall, irrespective of its level.

“Traders we spoke to think the first and second level of resistance of 280 per dollar and 285 per dollar will be breached in the coming week unless the IMF comes on board. They also feel that 270-275 per dollar is the fair level post-IMF agreement, and any outruns will be temporary and will get corrected once there is some visibility of inflow,” the commentary read.

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With the PSX at 115,000, investors profit while the sun is shining.

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10 hours ago

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Despite the numerous actions the government has taken in recent months, the nation’s economy is still growing.

The extraordinary rise in equities in recent years is evidence that the economic “turnaround” has given investors cause for optimism.

As market participants eagerly made investments, the KSE-100 index crossed the 115,000 level on Friday, the penultimate working day of the current week on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The stocks gained strength on the 13th consecutive day, highlighting improvement in the country’s economy.

During early hours of trading, stocks climbed to 115,172 with a gain of 600 points.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) reached its peak by surging above 114,000 points on Thursday. It has been over a month since the surge began.

The figure jumped by a substantial 2,500 points to 113,374 points during Thursday’s session. The KSE-100 index closed at 114,180, up 3,370 points, after surpassing 114,000 points later in the day.

On Wednesday, stocks closed at 111,810.

FLOW AND EBB

The market had a sharp bearish rise a few days ago, but it was short-lived as bullish momentum returned. The benchmark KSE-100 index gained more than 2,000 points and is currently sitting around 111,000. It was in opposition to the close of 108,896 points the day before.

CUT THE rating ON THE CARDS

The proverbial bulls have been galloping for the past month or so thanks to the financial infusion from the International Monetary Fund’s loan disbursement and more discussions on climate funding.

The impending policy rate cut meeting of the SBP is another factor contributing to the current market attitude. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank is scheduled to convene on Monday, December 16.

On November 30, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) achieved a historic milestone by reaching a record-breaking high of 100,000 points following an unheard-of run of gains.

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ADB Adjusts Pakistan’s Economic Growth Forecast to 3% for 2024-25, Indicating Positive Economic Trajectory

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1 day ago

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Pakistan’s economic growth is projected to be three percent in the fiscal year 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank’s revised prediction, which is an upward revision from the previous forecast.

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The PSX 100 index crosses 113,000 points, marking a historic milestone.

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1 day ago

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The historic 113,213-point milestone has been surpassed for the first time by the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), setting a new record.

The stock market experienced a spectacular start to the trading session, rising 1,400 points in just 30 minutes. At an all-time high of 112,277 points, the KSE-100 Index jumped 1,467 points.

With the index rising 1,200 points in just 15 minutes after the market began, the PSX had already reached another milestone. At 112,041 points, the KSE-100 Index had risen 1,231 points.

In another example of record-breaking performance, the PSX saw a 1,000-point spike in just 10 minutes. The KSE-100 Index rose 1,100 points to 111,911 points, regaining the 111,000-point milestone and hitting its highest level ever.

The PSX’s exceptional performance establishes it as a crucial gauge of economic optimism by highlighting robust investor confidence and substantial market momentum.

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