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WB cuts Pakistan’s GDP forecast on rising rates, limited fiscal space

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1 year ago

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  • World Bank expects economy to grow 0.4% in current year.
  • Bleaker forecast assumes agreement is reached with IMF.
  • World  Bank lowers regional growth forecast to 5.6%.

The World Bank sharply lowered Pakistan’s current-year growth forecast, saying the country’s economic growth prospects have weakened due to tighter financial conditions and limited fiscal space.

The World Bank now expects Pakistan’s economy to grow 0.4% in the current year, from its October forecast of 2% growth. The bleaker forecast assumes an agreement is reached with the International Monetary Fund for bailout funds, it said.

Pakistan’s fiscal year starts in July and runs through June. Pakistan expects its economy to grow 2% in FY23, however, the country’s central bank chief said in January the growth forecast could face downward pressure.

The South Asian nation has been in economic turmoil for months with an acute balance of payments crisis while talks with the IMF to secure $1.1 billion in funding as part of a $6.5 billion bailout agreed upon in 2019 have not yet yielded fruit.

Lower economic output and high prices in Pakistan have led to stampedes and looting at flour distribution centres set up across the country.

“Elevated global and domestic food prices are contributing to greater food insecurity for South Asia’s poor who spend a larger share of income on food,” the bank said.

The World Bank lowered its 2023 regional growth forecast to 5.6% from 6.1% in October.

“Rising interest rates and uncertainty in financial markets are putting downward pressure on the region’s economies,” the report said.

Most countries have raised interest rates at a rapid pace since the war in Ukraine last year led to choking supply chains and stoked inflation globally.

The World Bank forecast Sri Lanka’s economy will contract by 4.3% this year, reflecting the lasting impact of the macro debt crisis, with future growth prospects heavily dependent on debt restructuring and structural reforms.

Sri Lanka follows the calendar year. In January, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka’s economy could contract by 3.5% or 4.0% in 2023 after shrinking by 11% last year.

Inflation in South Asia is set to fall to 8.9% this year, and to below 7% in 2024, the World Bank said.

The World Bank also lowered its forecast for India’s economic growth in the current fiscal year that started on April 1 to 6.3% from 6.6% as it expects higher borrowing costs to hurt consumption.

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Islamic Sukuk Bonds: Government Is Expected To Begin Bond Auction Next Week

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There is now more positive economic news for the people of Pakistan. The government is anticipated to begin the Sukuk Islamic Bond auction next week, after the central bank’s announcement of a large drop in the policy rate.

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SIFC Encourages Green Tourism: Reforming Visas to Increase Investment

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Enhancing investment in the tourism sector, Green Tourism Pakistan’s initiative has received backing from the Special Investment Facilitation Council.

Visa-On-Arrival for 126 countries, Visa-Free Entry for Gulf Cooperation Council nations, and 24-hour expedited visa processing are some of the main features of the Green Tourism Visa Policy.

It is anticipated that these endeavors will draw in about 80 million dollars in foreign direct investment and 8.3 billion rupees in domestic investment.

Green Tourism Private Limited has introduced hunting resorts in Naltar, Hunza, and Skardu, along with four- and five-star city hotels, to improve the tourism experience.

In the first phase of the project, 17 of the 78 areas have seen the start of development activity.

Approved is a central authority for Green Tourism that will supervise the growth of Air Operations.

To promote Religious Tourism, extra precautions have been taken to guarantee the security of visitors from all religions, including Sikhs and Buddhists.

Furthermore, in order to improve the quality of the tourist experience, the green guide quality program has been introduced to supply top-notch tour guides.

There is now a deluxe bus excursion from Islamabad to Peshawar that promotes local culture.

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July 2024 export data from Pakistan shows a significant rise.

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The Strategic Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has been instrumental in improving Pakistani products’ access to international markets, as seen by the significant surge in exports from the country at the start of the 2024–25 fiscal year.

With a 7.26% rise over the same month the previous year, July 2024 exports to the US were $476.017 million. After increasing by 7.74% annually, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the second-largest export destination.

The third and fourth places were occupied by exports to the UK ($183.303 million) and China ($60.100 million). A substantial increase in exports to Afghanistan was recorded in July of this year, rising from $46.262 million to $88.065 million, largely due to successful anti-smuggling efforts.

With a combined export volume of $553.951 million, more important export destinations included Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

A bright future for the national economy is suggested by the growing confidence major international markets have in Pakistani exports. Through the efforts of SIFC and the government, this greater access to global markets has been made possible.

Pakistan’s economy is predicted to remain stable as a result of the export growth that SIFC has enabled.

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