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‘The worst is yet to come’: the curse of high inflation

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2 years ago

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Globally, people are experiencing inflation at levels not seen for decades as prices surge for essentials like food, heating, transport and accommodation. And though a peak could be in sight, the effects may yet get worse.

How did we get here? In two words: pandemic and war.

A long and comfortable period of scant inflation and low-interest rates ended abruptly after COVID-19 struck, as governments and central banks kept locked-down businesses and households afloat with trillions of dollars of support.

That lifeline kept workers from joining dole queues, businesses from going broke and house prices from crashing. But it also knocked supply and demand out of kilter as never before.

By 2021, as lockdowns ended and the global economy grew at its fastest post-recession pace in 80 years, all that stimulus money overwhelmed the world’s trading system.

Factories that had been idled could not ratchet up fast enough to meet demand, COVID-safe rules caused labour shortages in retail, transport and healthcare, and the recovery boom caused a spike in energy prices.

If that wasn’t enough, Russia invaded Ukraine in February and Western sanctions on the major oil and gas exporter sent fuel prices yet higher.

Why it matters

Known as a “tax on the poor” because it hits those on low incomes the hardest, double-digit inflation has exacerbated inequalities worldwide. While wealthier consumers can rely on savings built up during pandemic lockdowns, others struggle to make ends meet and a growing number rely on food banks.

With winter setting in across the northern hemisphere, that squeeze on living costs will tighten as fuel bills soar. Workers have taken strike action in sectors from healthcare to aviation to demand that wages keep pace with inflation. In most cases, they are having to settle for less.

Cost of living concerns dominate the politics of rich nations – in some cases relegating other priorities, such as climate change action.

While recent falls in gasoline prices have eased some of the pressure, inflation remains a top focus for US President Joe Biden’s administration. France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz are stretching their budgets to channel billions of euros into support programmes.

But if things are tough in industrialised economies, rocketing food prices are worsening poverty and suffering in poorer countries, from Haiti to Sudan and Lebanon to Sri Lanka.

The World Food Programme estimates an extra 70 million people worldwide have been driven closer to starvation since the start of the Ukraine war in what it calls a “tsunami of hunger”.

What does it mean for 2023?

The world’s central banks have embarked on steep interest rate hikes to cool demand and tame inflation. By the end of 2023, the International Monetary Fund expects global inflation to have fallen to 4.7% – just less than half its current level.

The aim is for a “soft landing” in which the cooling-off happens without housing market crashes, business bankruptcies or surging joblessness. But such a best-case scenario has proven elusive in past encounters with high inflation.

From US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell to the European Central Bank’s Christine Lagarde, there is growing talk that rate-hike medicine may taste bitter. On top of that, risks surrounding the big uncertainties – the Ukraine war, tensions between China and the West – are skewed to the downside.

The IMF’s regular October outlook was one of the bleakest for years, stating: “In short, the worst is yet to come and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”

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Trade Agreements Worth $10.70 Million Were Signed At Expo For Pakistan And Indonesia To Increase Their Trade With The Support Of SIFC

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Through the assistance of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), Pakistan and Indonesia have reiterated their dedication to improving their economic and commercial ties.

The participation of a Pakistani trade delegation was made possible by Indonesia at a recent trade expo, which resulted in the formation of agreements and memorandums of understanding with a total value of 10.70 million $. In addition to retail items and automobile components, these agreements span industries such as coconut, cocoa, ginger, spices, and retail goods.

As a key step toward improving economic ties, particularly with the Sindh business community, the participation of the group was praised by Tegu Viveko, who is acting as the Consul General of Indonesia.

Abid Nisar, the head of the Pakistan-Indonesia business council, has stated his confidence regarding the possibility of enhanced relations between the two countries, highlighting the historical and cultural origins of the connection.

In its capacity as a member of the G20, Indonesia intends to assist both nations in maximizing the benefits of their partnership in order to achieve better economic stability.

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Pakistan’s textile exports rose by 9.51% to $4.520 billion.

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Pakistan’s textile exports had a 9.51 percent increase in the first quarter of the current financial year (2024-25) compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported that textile exports from the country amounted to US $4.520 billion during July-September (2024-25), compared to US $4.127 billion during the same period in the previous year (2023-24).

The textile goods that facilitated trade expansion comprised cotton fabric, whose exports rose by 10.20 percent to $523.63 million from $475.187 million, and knitwear, which experienced a 14.13 percent increase in exports to $1,268.908 million from $1,111.818 million.

Other commodities that experienced trade growth included bed wear, with exports increasing by 13.31 percent to $794.972 million from $701.570 million; towels, which rose by 7.04 percent to $261.316 million from $244.134 million; and tents, canvas, and tarpaulin, which grew by 5.43 percent to $28.796 million this year compared to $27.312 million last year.

The export of readymade garments increased by 23.17 percent to $996.831 million from $809.316 million; art, silk, and synthetic textiles rose by 15.79 percent to $96.482 million; made-up articles (excluding towels and bed wear) grew by 12.10 percent to $191.050 million from $170.422 million; and the export of other textile materials surged by 8.73 percent to $187.145 million from $172.112 million.

The textile commodities that had negative trade growth were cotton yarn, with exports decreasing by 48.45 percent, from $315.404 million to $162.579 million, while raw cotton exports fell by 100 percent from 6.621 million to zero during the reviewed months.

The export of yarn, excluding cotton yarn, decreased by 15.15 percent, from $10.096 million to $8.566 million.

In September 2024, textile exports experienced a year-on-year growth of 17.92 percent compared to the same month in the previous year.

Textile exports from the country in September 2024 amounted to US $1,604.481 million, compared to US $1,360.902 million in September 2023.

Textile exports from the country experienced a nominal decline of 2.40 percent in September 2024, compared to the $1,644.333 million reported in August 2024, according to PBS statistics.

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PIA is designated as the official airline of IDEAS 2004.

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PIA has been designated as the official airline of IDEAS 2024. The PIA will utilise its aircraft for the promotion of IDEAS 2024.

In this context, the emblems of IDEAS 2024 have been affixed to two Boeing 777 aircraft and two Airbus planes of Pakistan International Airlines.

The International Defence Exhibition and Seminar (IDEAS) 2024 is scheduled to commence from November 19 to 22 at the Karachi Expo Centre.

The government of Pakistan places significant value on IDEAS. The show draws several delegates and is perceived as a means to promote their local arms trade.

The inaugural IDEAS launch took place in 2000, serving as a platform to promote Pakistan’s indigenous arms manufacturing industry while allowing international suppliers to provide solutions for the needs of Pakistan’s tri-services.

The event, consistently held at the Karachi Expo Centre, attracted forty-five foreign delegations in its inaugural year.

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