Business

‘The worst is yet to come’: the curse of high inflation

Published

1 year ago

Farwa

Globally, people are experiencing inflation at levels not seen for decades as prices surge for essentials like food, heating, transport and accommodation. And though a peak could be in sight, the effects may yet get worse.

How did we get here? In two words: pandemic and war.

A long and comfortable period of scant inflation and low-interest rates ended abruptly after COVID-19 struck, as governments and central banks kept locked-down businesses and households afloat with trillions of dollars of support.

That lifeline kept workers from joining dole queues, businesses from going broke and house prices from crashing. But it also knocked supply and demand out of kilter as never before.

By 2021, as lockdowns ended and the global economy grew at its fastest post-recession pace in 80 years, all that stimulus money overwhelmed the world’s trading system.

Factories that had been idled could not ratchet up fast enough to meet demand, COVID-safe rules caused labour shortages in retail, transport and healthcare, and the recovery boom caused a spike in energy prices.

If that wasn’t enough, Russia invaded Ukraine in February and Western sanctions on the major oil and gas exporter sent fuel prices yet higher.

Why it matters

Known as a “tax on the poor” because it hits those on low incomes the hardest, double-digit inflation has exacerbated inequalities worldwide. While wealthier consumers can rely on savings built up during pandemic lockdowns, others struggle to make ends meet and a growing number rely on food banks.

With winter setting in across the northern hemisphere, that squeeze on living costs will tighten as fuel bills soar. Workers have taken strike action in sectors from healthcare to aviation to demand that wages keep pace with inflation. In most cases, they are having to settle for less.

Cost of living concerns dominate the politics of rich nations – in some cases relegating other priorities, such as climate change action.

While recent falls in gasoline prices have eased some of the pressure, inflation remains a top focus for US President Joe Biden’s administration. France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz are stretching their budgets to channel billions of euros into support programmes.

But if things are tough in industrialised economies, rocketing food prices are worsening poverty and suffering in poorer countries, from Haiti to Sudan and Lebanon to Sri Lanka.

The World Food Programme estimates an extra 70 million people worldwide have been driven closer to starvation since the start of the Ukraine war in what it calls a “tsunami of hunger”.

What does it mean for 2023?

The world’s central banks have embarked on steep interest rate hikes to cool demand and tame inflation. By the end of 2023, the International Monetary Fund expects global inflation to have fallen to 4.7% – just less than half its current level.

The aim is for a “soft landing” in which the cooling-off happens without housing market crashes, business bankruptcies or surging joblessness. But such a best-case scenario has proven elusive in past encounters with high inflation.

From US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell to the European Central Bank’s Christine Lagarde, there is growing talk that rate-hike medicine may taste bitter. On top of that, risks surrounding the big uncertainties – the Ukraine war, tensions between China and the West – are skewed to the downside.

The IMF’s regular October outlook was one of the bleakest for years, stating: “In short, the worst is yet to come and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”

Business

$399 million in airline revenue is being blocked by Pakistan. IATA

Published

16 mins ago

Farwa

Pakistan and Bangladesh have been urged by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to promptly release airline profits that are being withheld in violation of international agreements.

“Airlines are unable to repatriate over $720 million ($399 million in Pakistan and $323 million in Bangladesh) of revenues earned in these markets, resulting in a severe situation,” an IATA statement stated.

“Money-denominated expenses like lease agreements, spare parts, overflight fees, and fuel must be paid for in a timely manner by repatriating revenues to their home countries.”

Delaying repatriation raises exchange rate risks for airlines and violates bilateral agreements’ international commitments. In order for airlines to effectively continue to offer the aviation connectivity that both of these countries depend on, Pakistan and Bangladesh must immediately release the more than $720 million that they are blocking, according to Philip Goh, Regional Vice President for Asia-Pacific at IATA.

Pakistan needs to make the difficult repatriation procedure less complicated. According to the statement, this presently includes the need to present audit certifications and tax exemption certificates, both of which create needless delays.

Approximately 425,000 jobs and $2.8 billion in economic activity were supported by Pakistan’s aviation industry prior to COVID-19. Passenger numbers are predicted to increase by more than 2.5 times by 2040 after returning to pre-COVID levels in 2023, according to the statement.

Business

The IMF executive board will meet on April 29 to discuss the release of $1.1 billion to Pakistan, according to the report.

Published

30 mins ago

Farwa

The cash represents the second and final tranche of a $3 billion standby agreement with the IMF, which was acquired last summer to avoid a sovereign default and expires this month.

The South Asian nation is looking for a fresh, longer-term IMF loan. Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, has stated that Islamabad expects to get a staff-level agreement on the new programme by early July.

Islamabad says it wants a loan for at least three years to help with macroeconomic stability and to carry out long-overdue and painful structural reforms, but Aurangzeb has declined to specify what type of programme the country wants.

Read more: Pakistan plans to agree on the outline of a new IMF loan in May. Fin-Min Aurangzeb

Pakistan has yet to make a formal request, but the Fund and the government are already in discussions.

If secured, it will be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

The $350 billion economy is experiencing a chronic balance of payment crisis, with nearly $24 billion in debt and interest to repay over the next fiscal year – three times the amount of foreign currency reserves held by the central bank.

Pakistan’s finance ministry expects the economy to grow by 2.6% in the current fiscal year, which ends in June, while average inflation is expected to be 24%, down from 29.2% in fiscal year 2023/2024. Last May, inflation soared to a record high of 38%.

Business

PSX surpasses the historical 71,500-point threshold.

Published

3 days ago

Farwa

Investors celebrated as the PSX finally crossed the historic 71,500 point threshold, signalling a critical turning point in the state of the economy in the country.

The KSE-100 index jumped more than 740 points, soaring to a record high of 71,650 points, demonstrating the tenacity and optimism that pervaded the Pakistani financial market.

This outstanding accomplishment indicates strong growth possibilities for the foreseeable future and demonstrates investors’ faith in the nation’s economic prospects.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)’s KSE-100 index saw a minor decline of 60.92 points on Friday, or 0.09 percent, and ended the day at 70,483.66 points.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar lost value in relation to the Pakistani rupee at the same time.

Currency dealers claim that on the first day of the workweek, the value of the US dollar dropped by 11 paisas to Rs278.20 in the interbank market, significantly strengthening the rupee.