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S&P Global Ratings downgrades Pakistan’s credit score

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  • S&P decreases Pakistan’s credit score from B- to CCC+.
  • Agency maintains Pakistan’s outlook stable.
  • Fitch and Moody’s have already ranked Pakistan’s bonds below investment grade.

KARACHI: S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Pakistan’s credit score due to the series of shocks — from flooding to surging inflation — that has deteriorated the country’s external, fiscal and economic metrics, reported The News.

The nation’s credit score was downgraded from B- to CCC+ by S&P, which expects Pakistan’s dwindling foreign reserves to remain under pressure in the coming year, just as political risks linger, according to a statement.

“Pakistan’s already low foreign exchange reserves will remain under pressure throughout 2023, barring a material decline in oil prices or a step-up in foreign assistance,” S&P analysts Andrew Wood and YeeFarn Phua wrote.

The country also faces elevated political risks which may affect its policy trajectory over the next year.

Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service already rank the nation’s $7.8 billion in foreign bonds at seven notches below investment grade, the equivalent of S&P’s CCC+ rating, on par with El Salvador and Ukraine. S&P also raised the outlook for Pakistan to stable from negative on Thursday.

The country is facing an economic crisis with only enough reserves to cover one month of imports, a dollar shortage and a delay in its loan programme with the International Monetary Fund. Investors are pessimistic about Pakistan’s ability to keep up with its foreign debt obligations, with long-term dollar bonds continuing to trade at distressed levels despite the payment of a $1 billion bond this month.

S&P said this year’s severe floods, surging food and energy inflation, as well as rising global interest rates, will further depress Pakistan’s economic and fiscal outcomes, with refinancing challenges over the medium term.

Pakistan’s unprecedented floods in the summer killed more than 1,700 people, inundated a third of the nation and cut the nation’s growth by half. The floods have left about $32 billion in damages and losses to the nation’s economy.

Meantime, the current administration is set to end by August of next year or earlier, meaning it has limited time to implement economic reforms.

“We expect political uncertainty to remain elevated over the coming quarters, with continued pressure from the opposition to hold early elections,” the S&P analysts wrote.

The agency maintained its outlook at “stable”.

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Pakistan’s gold prices are still declining; see the most recent

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The price of 10-gram gold reduced by Rs943 to settle at Rs207,733, while the price of gold dropped by Rs1200 to close at Rs242,300 a tola, according to the Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

In the global market, the price of the precious metal fell by $10 to $2,349 per ounce, resulting in losses.

At 04:48 GMT, the spot price of gold had dropped by 0.2% to $2,354.77 per ounce. In the previous session, prices reached a two-week high.

American gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,361.

Spot silver decreased by 0.4% to $28.03 per ounce, while palladium remained steady at $978.03 and platinum decreased by 0.1% to $992.89.

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Pakistan and the IMF begin talks for a new loan.

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Pakistan is requesting a $6 to $8 billion bailout package from the international lender over the next three to four years to address its financial troubles.

A mission team led by Nathan Porter, the IMF’s Mission Chief in Pakistan, is meeting with a Pakistani delegation led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Islamabad may face more difficult options, such as raising power and gas bills.

Mr. Aurganzeb informed the IMF team that the country’s economy has improved as a result of the IMF loan package, and Islamabad is ready to sign a new loan programme to further develop.

The IMF mission expressed satisfaction with Islamabad’s efforts to revive the country’s struggling economy.

The IMF praised Pakistan’s economic growth in its staff report earlier this week, but warned that the outlook remains challenging, with very high downside risks.

The country nearly avoided collapse last summer, and its $350 billion economy has stabilized since the end of the last IMF program, with inflation falling to roughly 17% in April from a record high of 38% last May.

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Petrol prices are likely to drop significantly beginning May 16.

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According to sources, the government is set to decrease petrol prices by Rs 14 per litre and diesel prices by Rs 10 on May 16 for the next fortnight’s revision.

Last month, the government reduced the price of fuel and high-speed diesel by Rs5.45 and Rs8.42 per fortnight, respectively.

The current fuel price is Rs288.49 per litre, while the HSD price is Rs281.96.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell further on Monday, as signs of sluggish fuel consumption and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials dimmed optimism for interest rate reduction, which may slow growth and reduce fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude prices down 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.07 per barrel.

Oil prices also declined on signals of poor demand, according to ANZ analysts, as gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States increased in the week before the start of the driving season.

Refiners throughout the world are dealing with falling diesel profitability as new refineries increase supply and warm weather in the northern hemisphere and weak economic activity reduce demand.

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