Business

SBP’s unexpected interest rate hike takes toll on PSX, plunges over 850 points

Published

1 year ago

Farwa

“Market wasn’t expecting rate hike, that’s why it reacted,” analyst says.
Benchmark KSE-100 index fell below 42,000-barrier during intra-day.
Analyst says interest rates at 16% is negative for corporate profitability.

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan‘s unexpected increase in the interest rate shook investors’ confidence on the first day of the week, as the stock market took a hit with the benchmark KSE-100 index losing more than 850 points on Monday.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 index had opened at 42,936.73, however, after losing 865.39 points, or -2.02% the index closed the session at 42,071.34 points.

Investors were concerned over the challenges faced by the beleaguered economy as cash-strapped Pakistan awaits funds from bilateral and multilateral partners.

The index remained on a downward trajectory, falling below the psychological barrier of 42,000 touching an intra-day low of 41,963.94 points.

In the morning, trading activity began on a negative note and the market fell steadily till midday when it touched its lowest mark for the day. Later, slight buying helped the bourse recoup some losses.

Benchmark KSE-100 index intra-day trading curve. — PSX data portal

Analyst Samiullah Tariq laid blame on SBP’s decision to increase the interest rate as a key factor for the drop in the KSE-100 index.

“[The] market wasn’t expecting a rate hike. That’s why it was reacting,” the head of research at Pakistan-Kuwait Investment Company told Geo.tv.

Capital market expert Saad Ali also blamed the “surprise interest rate hike” for the drop, adding that investors may be expecting more hikes given the inflation outlook.

“Interest rates at 16% or higher is significantly negative for growth and corporate profitability,” Ali told Geo.tv.

At the time the decision was announced by SBP, the markets had closed, which is why the KSE-100 index today went in the red at the opening.

Shares of 350 companies were traded during the session. At the close of trading, 47 scrips closed in the green, 294 in the red, and nine remained unchanged.

Overall trading volumes declined to 244.35 million shares compared with Friday’s tally of 177.29 million. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs6.97 billion.

K-Electric was the volume leader with 29.01 million shares traded, losing Rs0.17 to close at Rs2.60. It was followed by WorldCall Telecom with 22.51 million shares traded, gaining Rs0.06 to close at Rs1.36 and Dewan Farooqui Motors with 13.78 million shares gaining Rs0.06 to close at Rs11.87.

SBP hikes interest rate to 16% to curtail inflation

On Friday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Friday raised the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 16% — the highest since 1999.

The central bank, in a statement, issued after the meeting said that the decision reflects the MPC’s view that inflationary pressures have proven to be stronger and more persistent than expected.

“This decision is aimed at ensuring that elevated inflation does not become entrenched and that risks to financial stability are contained, thus paving the way for higher growth on a more sustainable basis,” the MPC said.

The SBP noted that amid the ongoing economic slowdown, inflation is increasingly being driven by persistent global and domestic supply shocks that are raising costs.

Business

November inflation to spike on gas price adjustment, dashing slowdown hopes

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

CPI likely to rise to 28.6-29.6% year-on-year in Nov.
Inflation rate could register 2.1% month-on-month jump.
Weekly SPI on Nov 16 showed 480% surge in gas prices.

KARACHI: Inflation is expected to surge in November, primarily due to a massive hike in gas prices, according to brokerage reports released on Wednesday.

The consumer price index (CPI), which measures changes in the prices of goods and services, is likely to rise to 28.6-29.6% year-on-year in November, up from 26.9% in October.

A report by brokerage firm Insight Securities predicts that the inflation rate will register a 2.1% month-on-month jump, defying earlier expectations of a gradual slowdown from September onwards. Optimus Capital Management estimates that the CPI will increase by 2.9% month-on-month, primarily driven by an 11.6% jump in the housing index due to gas price revision and a 1.6% increase in the food index.

The primary cause behind the expected spike in November inflation is the adjustment of recently imposed fixed charges within the gas tariff structure. The weekly sensitive price index (SPI) inflation released on November 16 showed an astonishing 480% surge in gas prices.

However, a slight respite is expected from a 4.0% decrease in the transport index due to lower average fuel prices in November. The impact of the gas price hike was partially mitigated by the decline in fuel prices and the month-on-month fall in the food commodity adjustment (FCA).

Food inflation is attributed to a sharp increase in the prices of perishable items such as onions, tomatoes, potatoes, and eggs, as well as tea. Despite an increase in supply from imports, wheat prices still rose month-on-month, while sugar and cooking oil showed a significant decline during this period, based on weekly SPI data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The recently implemented axle load regime, which limits the weight of goods transported by trucks, could put some pressure on the price levels of goods.

The higher October fuel cost adjustment (FCA) demanded at Rs3.5 per kilowatt hour (to be applicable in December) on electricity charges and a second-round impact of gas price increase could keep inflation under pressure. However, the base effect during the second half of the fiscal year is likely to help absorb the impact.

Commodity and energy prices, along with the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar, will remain important factors in keeping the CPI under control.

The reports projected the average inflation for the first five months of the fiscal year 2023/24 (July-June) to be 28.5%, compared with 25.2% in the same period last year and with an estimated ending at 19.4% year-on-year in June 2024.

They predicted that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is likely to maintain the interest rate in its upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting due to the higher-than-estimated inflation in November. However, the SBP could opt to initiate an easing cycle in the first quarter of 2024, given the high base effect in the second half of the fiscal year.

Business

Petrol price likely to remain unchanged in next fortnightly review

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

Petrol prices to hold steady in next review.
Diesel and kerosene prices to decline from Dec 1.
Next fortnightly review due tomorrow (Nov 31).

KARACHI: The prices of petroleum products will not see any major change in the upcoming fortnightly review with diesel and kerosene rates expected to go down slightly, according to the industry calculations.

According to a The News report published Thursday, the ex-refinery and ex-depot prices of petroleum products did not register any major fluctuation as global crude prices eased in recent days.

The ex-depot price of petrol, the most widely used fuel in the country, is slightly higher by Rs0.19 per litre to Rs281.53 per litre compared to the current price of Rs281.34, industry officials said.

The ex-depot price of high speed diesel (HSD), used mainly for transport, has been worked out at Rs290.47 per litre for the next fortnight compared to the existing price of Rs296.71 , showing a decline of Rs6.24 rupees per litre.

The ex-depot price of kerosene, used for cooking and lighting in rural areas, has been worked out at Rs202.16 per litre compared to the current price of Rs204.98, indicating a decrease of Rs2.82 per litre.

The ex-depot price of light speed diesel, another variant of diesel, has been worked out at Rs176.18 per litre for the next review against the present price of Rs180.45, registering a decline of Rs4.27 per litre, the report stated.

According to the industry’s working, the estimated exchange adjustment of petrol is zero whereas it is Rs1.80 per litre for HSD.

However, the industry officials said that the prices of petroleum products can change with the exchange loss as the industry did not put the exchange loss figure in its working for the next review.

The country fixes fuel prices on a fortnightly basis after evaluating fluctuating international energy market costs and the rupee-dollar parity to transfer the impact on domestic consumers.

They said global oil prices remained under pressure during November, falling below $75 a barrel in mid-November.

WTI was trading at $76.5 a barrel on November 29, down by nearly 7% as compared to October 29. Brent was down by 5.4% in the past month, trading at $86.35 a barrel, they added.

Business

Another day, another high: PSX continues bull run as KSE-100 goes past 61,000 points

Published

4 days ago

Farwa

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Wednesday reached another historic high as the bulls continue to dominate the benchmark KSE 100 index with hopes of the State Bank of Pakistan lowering the policy rate in the coming days.

Benchmark KSE-100 index at 10:09am. — Screengrab/PSX website

The benchmark index gained 702, or 1.16%, during the intraday trade and stood at 61,433 points at 10:09am.

Commenting on the bull run, Head of Research at Pakistan-Kuwait Investment, Samiullah Tariq said that the market was reacting positively because it expects an interest rate cut, a quick International Monetary Fund review and strong profitability of companies.