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SBP’s unexpected interest rate hike takes toll on PSX, plunges over 850 points

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  • “Market wasn’t expecting rate hike, that’s why it reacted,” analyst says.
  • Benchmark KSE-100 index fell below 42,000-barrier during intra-day.
  • Analyst says interest rates at 16% is negative for corporate profitability.

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan‘s unexpected increase in the interest rate shook investors’ confidence on the first day of the week, as the stock market took a hit with the benchmark KSE-100 index losing more than 850 points on Monday. 

The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 index had opened at 42,936.73, however, after losing 865.39 points, or -2.02% the index closed the session at 42,071.34 points.

Investors were concerned over the challenges faced by the beleaguered economy as cash-strapped Pakistan awaits funds from bilateral and multilateral partners. 

The index remained on a downward trajectory, falling below the psychological barrier of 42,000 touching an intra-day low of 41,963.94 points.

In the morning, trading activity began on a negative note and the market fell steadily till midday when it touched its lowest mark for the day. Later, slight buying helped the bourse recoup some losses.

Benchmark KSE-100 index intra-day trading curve. — PSX data portal
Benchmark KSE-100 index intra-day trading curve. — PSX data portal

Analyst Samiullah Tariq laid blame on SBP’s decision to increase the interest rate as a key factor for the drop in the KSE-100 index. 

“[The] market wasn’t expecting a rate hike. That’s why it was reacting,” the head of research at Pakistan-Kuwait Investment Company told Geo.tv

Capital market expert Saad Ali also blamed the “surprise interest rate hike” for the drop, adding that investors may be expecting more hikes given the inflation outlook

“Interest rates at 16% or higher is significantly negative for growth and corporate profitability,” Ali told Geo.tv

At the time the decision was announced by SBP, the markets had closed, which is why the KSE-100 index today went in the red at the opening.

Shares of 350 companies were traded during the session. At the close of trading, 47 scrips closed in the green, 294 in the red, and nine remained unchanged.

Overall trading volumes declined to 244.35 million shares compared with Friday’s tally of 177.29 million. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs6.97 billion.

K-Electric was the volume leader with 29.01 million shares traded, losing Rs0.17 to close at Rs2.60. It was followed by WorldCall Telecom with 22.51 million shares traded, gaining Rs0.06 to close at Rs1.36 and Dewan Farooqui Motors with 13.78 million shares gaining Rs0.06 to close at Rs11.87. 

SBP hikes interest rate to 16% to curtail inflation

On Friday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Friday raised the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 16% — the highest since 1999.

The central bank, in a statement, issued after the meeting said that the decision reflects the MPC’s view that inflationary pressures have proven to be stronger and more persistent than expected.

“This decision is aimed at ensuring that elevated inflation does not become entrenched and that risks to financial stability are contained, thus paving the way for higher growth on a more sustainable basis,” the MPC said.

The SBP noted that amid the ongoing economic slowdown, inflation is increasingly being driven by persistent global and domestic supply shocks that are raising costs. 

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APCC to meet today to decide budget outlay, targets

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  • APCC will meet at the Ministry of Planning today.
  • Govt considering allocation for Diamer Basha Dam in budget.
  • Total PSDP size would be proposed at Rs1,000bn.

ISLAMABAD: The Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) is likely to recommend around Rs900-1,000 billion macroeconomic framework and size of the federal development outlay for the upcoming budget for the next fiscal year 2023-24, The News reported Friday.

In the federal budget, against the revised estimates of Rs111 billion in the outgoing financial year, the government is all set to recommend a Rs90 billion proposed allocation for the controversial Sustainable Development Goals Achievement Programme (SAP) for parliamentarians.

Now the arrangements are underway for further jacking up the allocation of the SDG Achievement Programme from Rs111 billion to Rs116 billion for the outgoing fiscal year.

Well-placed sources in the Cabinet Division told The News that parliamentarians belonging to Balochistan and Sindh provinces largely presented flood-related schemes under the SDG Achievement Programme in the current fiscal year. 

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) were also providing $3 billion in loans for flood-related schemes in the aftermath of the severe floods, so at least there should be some kind of mechanism to avoid overlapping at the cost of the national exchequer.

There were 50 to 60% of small development schemes in Sindh and Balochistan related to floods in the outgoing financial year.

There are reports that one political party, which is one of the major allies of the ruling coalition at the federal level, placed a condition that all funds on behalf of their parliamentarians should be handed over to the political leader, who would disburse their share to each parliamentarian belonging to the party. 

All major allies of the Pakistan Democratic Movement-led government are beneficiaries of this SAP programme, as its funding has gone up from Rs68 billion at the initial level to Rs116 billion in the ongoing financial year.

The APCC, which is scheduled to meet in the Ministry of Planning today (Friday), will consider approval of the macroeconomic framework, including a real GDP growth rate of 3.5% and CPI-based inflation at 21% for the upcoming budget 2023-24.

According to the working paper prepared by the Ministry of Planning on Thursday, the Ministry of Finance gave an indicative budget ceiling for the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) to the tune of Rs700 billion for the next budget for 2023-24 but the Minister for Planning hoped that it would be jacked up to Rs800 billion under the directives of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

Now that the government has proposed an allocation of Rs200 billion for the Viability Gap Fund (VGF) executed through public-private partnerships (PPP), the total PSDP size would be proposed at Rs1,000 billion at the federal level for the next financial year. 

The share of the National Highway Authority (NHA) in the proposed PSDP would be reduced, ranging from Rs90 billion to Rs100 billion for the next budget, mainly because the NHA remained unable to utilise the major chunk of the total allocated amount in the ongoing financial year. 

The government is all set to propose allocations for flood mitigation and reconstruction efforts in the coming financial year. The government is also considering making an allocation for the Diamer Basha Dam in the coming budget for 2023-24.

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Is Pakistan launching digital currency?

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KARACHI: After making impressive progress in digital banking, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is planning to launch a digital currency in the future, The News reported Friday.

Central Bank’s Digital Financial Services Group Additional Director Shoukat Bizinjo said that a large number of central banks around the world, including Pakistan’s, are studying CBBCs (callable bull/bear contracts) in order to launch digital currency in their respective countries.

Bizinjo — while speaking at the 16th international conference on Mobile Commerce 2023 —  said: “Pakistan’s central bank is reviewing and consulting with other central banks in this regard (CBBCs and digital currency).” 

They are leveraged investments that track the performance of the underlying assets without requiring investors to pay the full price required to own the actual assets. Bizinjo said that the SBP is also in consultation with local industrial players to introduce digital currency.

He said that Electronic Money Institutions (EMIs) have made remarkable progress in e-banking through the launch of e-money wallets for consumers and merchants, and other digital payment instruments such as prepaid cards and contactless payment instruments.

Currently, the country has four live commercial EMIs, including NayaPak, Finja, CMPECC, and Sada Tech Pakistan. EMIs have an outstanding e-money balance of Rs2 billion, managing 1.6 million e-money wallets and 2.4 million payment cards as of March 31, 2023.

There are around 12 EMIs at different stages of acquiring licenses from the central bank. There are also dozens of companies that are in constant talks with the SBP to become EMIs. 

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Pakistan rules out Plan B rumours in case of IMF programme failure

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  • Budgetary framework has been shared with IMF, says minister.
  • Dr Pasha says IMF did not accept external financing gap of $4.5bn.
  • Adds there is a trust deficit because of PTI govt.

ISLAMABAD: Minister of State for Finance Dr Aisha Ghaus Pasha has ruled out any possibility of contemplating upon any other option — Plan B — in case Pakistan fails to woo the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revive the stalled loan programme, The News reported Friday.

“Let me say with clarity there were no other options that we are contemplating upon under Plan B in case of no revival of the Fund programme as the government was committed to reviving the IMF programme by completing the pending ninth review,” she said.

During a briefing of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance at the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) headquarters, MNA Ali Pervez Malik questioned Dr Pasha about Plan B in case of failure to revive the IMF programme and said that there was talk about a dollar amnesty scheme to improve dollar liquidity.

The minister further revealed that the Fund did not accept the external financing gap of $4.5 billion assessed by Pakistan. 

Dr Pasha disclosed that the IMF was still sticking to its projection of a financing gap of $6 billion for the ongoing financial year against Islamabad’s assessment of $4.5 billion on which assurances extended to the IMF by multilateral as well as bilateral creditors.

She went on to say that the government has shared the budgetary framework for the next fiscal year to satisfy the IMF. However, Pakistan has been waiting for the IMF’s response to share its recent steps to bridge the gap between interbank and open market rates on exchange rates, and assurances on external financing gaps. 

It should be noted that a broader agreement on these three major conditions could only pave the way for striking a staff-level agreement.

The minister clarified that the sharing of budgetary numbers is not the part of ninth review as it will be part of the 10th review but Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has decided to share the numbers for the revival of the Fund programme.

A senior official of the State Bank of Pakistan informed the NA panel that the permission granted for credit cards from exchange companies to interbank rate would require $70 million to $100 million on average on a monthly basis and recommended the FBR for raising taxes on transactions through credit cards in foreign exchange in the upcoming budget to compress demands for increased foreign exchange requirements.

Dr Pasha said that there was a trust deficit, not because of the incumbent regime, but blamed the last PTI-led government for breaching the IMF agreement by doling out un-targeted fuel and electricity subsidies just before leaving the government in the last financial year. 

She said that Saudi Arabia had granted assurances of $2 billion in additional deposits, while $1 billion have been committed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

The World Bank committed $450 million through the RISE-II programme loan and $250 million through Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 

The remaining are expected through Geneva pledges in the aftermath of flood assistance. 

Pakistan, she said, secured financing assurances of $4.5 billion. Initially, it was planned that out of $6 billion, the government would get assurances on $3 billion before signing the staff-level agreement. She said that the government paid back $3 billion to commercial banks with the understanding that it would get re-financed these loans once the SLA is done. 

“We also expect that after the revival of the IMF programme, other avenues of securing dollars will also open up” she added.

The ongoing IMF programme is going to expire on June 30 therefore the time is limited for completion of the pending 9th review under the $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). 

If the staff-level agreement is reached by evolving a broader consensus on three contentious issues including external financing, budgetary framework, and sticking to the free market exchange rate then the programme will be revived otherwise the programme will be met with failure. 

However, the sources said that Pakistan would be left with no other option but to seek another IMF programme next fiscal year keeping in view debt external repayments of $25 billion. 

It does not include the current account deficit and if it is projected in the range of $7-8 billion for the next fiscal year then the total external financing requirements will be stretched up to $32-33 billion in 2023-24.

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