Business

SBP gears up to ‘revise’ interest rates in off-cycle review on March 2

Published

1 year ago

Farwa

No MPC meeting held to date since last month, says SBP.
Market expects SBP to raise benchmark interest rates.
Government agreed to hike interest rate from 17% to 19%.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Tuesday “preponed” its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on March 2 — which was initially scheduled to meet for March 16 — in another attempt to increase the pace of efforts to secure the much-awaited International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) tranche.

The SBP announced on its official Twitter handle that “the forthcoming meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has been preponed and now it will be held on Thursday, March 02, 2023,” the central bank announced on its Twitter handle.

The forthcoming meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has been preponed and now it will be held on Thursday, March 02, 2023. pic.twitter.com/555JOhCFoe
— SBP (@StateBank_Pak) February 28, 2023

The SBP’s chief spokesperson Abid Qamar had said earlier that, following the meeting last month, no MPC meeting had been held to date.

The MPC was established under the SBP’s Amendment Act, which is empowered to take a decision keeping in view the macroeconomic fundamentals.

The market expects the SBP to raise benchmark interest rates as the rise in treasury yields in the last auction hinted towards market weighing-in concerns on the economic front with the investors continuing to take note of rising inflation around the world as well as in Pakistan, Arif Habib Limited stated in a commentary released earlier.

Moreover, sources had told Geo News last week thatthe coalition government had agreed to hike the interest rate from the existing level of 17% to 19% under one of the major conditions put forth by the Fund to revive the loan programme.

However, analysts believed that the SBP needed to bring forward the MPC meeting date as the ministry of finance cannot afford failure in the next T-bill auction.

It is to be highlighted that the Fund and the central bank had held a round of discussions about the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy and building up foreign exchange reserves by the end of June 2023.

The IMF had also asked the SBP for hiking the policy rate by 300 to 400 basis points in order to move towards the interest rate from a negative to a positive trajectory.

The cash-strapped country is undertaking key measures to secure IMF funding, including raising taxes, removing blanket subsidies, and artificial curbs on the exchange rate. While the government expects a deal with IMF soon, media reports say that the agency expects the policy rate to be increased.

Off-cycle rate reviews are not uncommon in Pakistan, though.

Adnan Sheikh, Assistant Vice President of Research at Pak Kuwait Investment Company, said that a rate hike is imminent.

Fahad Rauf, Head of Research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, said that the IMF has given a target to at least keep rates higher than core inflation.

“Pakistan has two core inflation readings i.e., urban (15.4% for Jan-23) and rural (19.4%) and no national core number is released. If the SBP tries to bring rates above rural core inflation, it requires a rate hike of 200-300 bps,” he said.

Mohammad Ayub Khuhro, a fund manager at a local fund, said that recent economic data on government finances suggest that it was running low on its cash balances held with the central bank.

“This is why the government went ahead with picking up their desired targets despite a signalling effect it would send to the markets,” Khuhro said.

“The government has effectively bypassed the central bank in order to fulfil IMF conditions by accepting a higher cut-off,” he added.

Business

Pakistan will host an IMF team in May to discuss a new loan.

Published

1 min ago

Farwa

According to sources, negotiations on a fresh loan program have been set between Pakistan and the foreign lender. There will be two stages to the meetings: technical discussions and policy-level conversations.

Prior to the upcoming negotiations, Pakistan must overcome formidable economic obstacles, including the collapse of an IMF-proposed tax amnesty program.

Although it hasn’t worked, the federal government had promised to include 3.1 million merchants in the scheme’s tax net. The recent turnover of senior officials has placed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in an atypical position.

The negotiation process with the IMF will be difficult for the new and inexperienced FBR team. The significant drop in FBR’s tax collections would likely worry the IMF.

A day prior, Pakistan obtained the eagerly awaited $1.1 billion last installment from the IMF as a component of the $3 billion standby agreement.

Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 828 million, or $1.1 billion in worth, were given to the SBP “after the successful completion of the second review by the Executive Board of IMF under Stand By Arrangement (SBA),” according to the SBP.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stated Islamabad might obtain a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is seeking a new, longer-term, and larger IMF loan.

Although Aurangzeb has neglected to specify the specific program in question, Islamabad has stated that it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years in order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural reforms. Should it be approved, Pakistan would receive its 24th IMF bailout.

Business

In FY2024, SRB tax revenue soars to Rs 185.2 billion.

Published

30 mins ago

Farwa

In a statement released here, the SRB’s chairman, Wasif Memon, stated that he briefed Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah about the organization’s revenue collections during their meeting.

In comparison, the tax collection during the same period of the previous financial year 2022–2023 stood at Rs143.3 billion. This achievement represents a 29 percent year-over-year growth, according to the Sindh Revenue Board (SRB), which recorded record revenue of Rs185.2 billion during the first nine months of the fiscal year 2023–2024.

The CM stated at the time that the SRB has shown tenacity and efficiency in revenue collection in spite of facing a number of difficulties, including the general economic downturn.

According to the statement, SRB’s monthly tax collection for April 2024 was Rs18.8 billion, a 23 percent increase from the Rs15.2 billion collected in the same month the previous year.

Business

Before the IMF delegation arrives, Pakistan will “finalize” its FY2024–25 budget targets.

Published

53 mins ago

Farwa

In order to discuss the new loan program that Pakistan is requesting to handle its financial needs, the IMF delegation is expected to arrive in Pakistan on May 15.

Within days of the IMF mission’s arrival, sources claim that the government accelerated its budget targets preparations. Relevant ministries have been instructed by the Ministry of Finance to meet targets as soon as possible.

Based on the information provided by the sources, the IMF will get a framework for all significant budgetary targets.

Before the IMF mission arrives, a strategic paper on the FY25 budget is reportedly going to be approved by the federal cabinet.

In addition, a preliminary estimate will be created for salaries, pensions, government spending, and loan repayments. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) will also set tax collection goals and defense spending.

According to additional sources, the economic team has been given a deadline by the Prime Minister’s Office to finish working on the FY25 budget.