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Rupee’s downward spiral continues unabated, breaches 245 threshold in open market

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  • Rupee has lost over 8.27% in last twelve sessions.
  • Local unit closes at 237.91 in interbank market.
  • Analysts believe rupee is unlikely to reverse downward trend. 

KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee reeled to a record low against the US dollar on Monday, breaching the critical threshold of 245 against the greenback in the open market.

With a fresh decline of Rs4.40, the local currency closed at Rs245.40 against the greenback in the open market.

Meanwhile, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the rupee closed at 237.91 after losing Rs1.07 (or 0.45%) as it inches closer to an all-time low of 239.94 hit on July 28.

The fall can be attributed to several factors, including the ongoing surge in dollar demand from local importers, amid the drying dollar reserves of the country and rising import bills in the wake of the worst floods, among others.

Speaking to Geo.tv, Pakistan-Kuwait Investment Company Head of Research Samiullah Tariq cited two major reasons behind the downfall of the rupee which include: import pressure and a severe liquidity crunch.

“The pressure of Peshawar foreign market — led by Afghan trade — is weighing on the local currency as the demand for greenback is more while supply is less,” he said.

In line with the massive decline of nearly Rs8 or 3.7% registered last week, other analysts also expect the local unit to hit a fresh all-time low against the US dollar this week.

Financial pundits believe that the rupee, which lost over 8.27% of its in the last twelve consecutive trading sessions, is unlikely to reverse the downward trend and may depreciate more value.

In a major economic development, the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) on Sunday confirmed the rollover of $3 billion deposits maturing on December 5, 2022, for one year, said the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Sunday.

However, analysts believe that the announcement is unlikely to alleviate pressure on the rupee, especially since there will be no material impact on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Commenting on this, Tariq said: “The market did not see the direct impact of the SFD development because it was just the government’s attempt to maintain foreign exchange reserves.”

The rupee has lost 13.90% of its value during the ongoing financial year of 2022-23. However, it shrank 28.81% in the calendar year 2022 as the demand for the US dollar remained high in the market.

Tariq believes that the rupee-dollar parity will improve within a month as a decline in international oil prices and prudent government policies will give the local unit a direction to move upwards.

Markets to normalise within 15 to 20 days: Miftah

A day earlier, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said that the global markets were “jittery” about Pakistan, given the economy had suffered at least $18 billion in losses after the floods, which could go as high as $30 billion.

“Yes, our credit default risk has gone up, and our bond prices have fallen. But, I think within 15 to 20 days, the market will normalise, and I think will understand that Pakistan is committed to being prudent,” he had said.

Pakistan’s next big payment — $1 billion in international bonds — is due in December, and Miftah said that payment would “absolutely” be met.

Central bank reserves stand at $8.6 billion, despite the influx of $1.12 billion in IMF funding in late August, which are only enough for about a month of imports. The end-year target was to increase the buffer up to 2.2 months.

Miftah said Pakistan will still be able to increase reserves by up to $4 billion, even if the floods hurt the current account balance by $4 billion in more imports, such as cotton, and a negative impact on exports.

However, he estimated the current account deficit will not increase by more than $2 billion following the floods.

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APCC to meet today to decide budget outlay, targets

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  • APCC will meet at the Ministry of Planning today.
  • Govt considering allocation for Diamer Basha Dam in budget.
  • Total PSDP size would be proposed at Rs1,000bn.

ISLAMABAD: The Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) is likely to recommend around Rs900-1,000 billion macroeconomic framework and size of the federal development outlay for the upcoming budget for the next fiscal year 2023-24, The News reported Friday.

In the federal budget, against the revised estimates of Rs111 billion in the outgoing financial year, the government is all set to recommend a Rs90 billion proposed allocation for the controversial Sustainable Development Goals Achievement Programme (SAP) for parliamentarians.

Now the arrangements are underway for further jacking up the allocation of the SDG Achievement Programme from Rs111 billion to Rs116 billion for the outgoing fiscal year.

Well-placed sources in the Cabinet Division told The News that parliamentarians belonging to Balochistan and Sindh provinces largely presented flood-related schemes under the SDG Achievement Programme in the current fiscal year. 

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) were also providing $3 billion in loans for flood-related schemes in the aftermath of the severe floods, so at least there should be some kind of mechanism to avoid overlapping at the cost of the national exchequer.

There were 50 to 60% of small development schemes in Sindh and Balochistan related to floods in the outgoing financial year.

There are reports that one political party, which is one of the major allies of the ruling coalition at the federal level, placed a condition that all funds on behalf of their parliamentarians should be handed over to the political leader, who would disburse their share to each parliamentarian belonging to the party. 

All major allies of the Pakistan Democratic Movement-led government are beneficiaries of this SAP programme, as its funding has gone up from Rs68 billion at the initial level to Rs116 billion in the ongoing financial year.

The APCC, which is scheduled to meet in the Ministry of Planning today (Friday), will consider approval of the macroeconomic framework, including a real GDP growth rate of 3.5% and CPI-based inflation at 21% for the upcoming budget 2023-24.

According to the working paper prepared by the Ministry of Planning on Thursday, the Ministry of Finance gave an indicative budget ceiling for the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) to the tune of Rs700 billion for the next budget for 2023-24 but the Minister for Planning hoped that it would be jacked up to Rs800 billion under the directives of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

Now that the government has proposed an allocation of Rs200 billion for the Viability Gap Fund (VGF) executed through public-private partnerships (PPP), the total PSDP size would be proposed at Rs1,000 billion at the federal level for the next financial year. 

The share of the National Highway Authority (NHA) in the proposed PSDP would be reduced, ranging from Rs90 billion to Rs100 billion for the next budget, mainly because the NHA remained unable to utilise the major chunk of the total allocated amount in the ongoing financial year. 

The government is all set to propose allocations for flood mitigation and reconstruction efforts in the coming financial year. The government is also considering making an allocation for the Diamer Basha Dam in the coming budget for 2023-24.

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Is Pakistan launching digital currency?

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KARACHI: After making impressive progress in digital banking, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is planning to launch a digital currency in the future, The News reported Friday.

Central Bank’s Digital Financial Services Group Additional Director Shoukat Bizinjo said that a large number of central banks around the world, including Pakistan’s, are studying CBBCs (callable bull/bear contracts) in order to launch digital currency in their respective countries.

Bizinjo — while speaking at the 16th international conference on Mobile Commerce 2023 —  said: “Pakistan’s central bank is reviewing and consulting with other central banks in this regard (CBBCs and digital currency).” 

They are leveraged investments that track the performance of the underlying assets without requiring investors to pay the full price required to own the actual assets. Bizinjo said that the SBP is also in consultation with local industrial players to introduce digital currency.

He said that Electronic Money Institutions (EMIs) have made remarkable progress in e-banking through the launch of e-money wallets for consumers and merchants, and other digital payment instruments such as prepaid cards and contactless payment instruments.

Currently, the country has four live commercial EMIs, including NayaPak, Finja, CMPECC, and Sada Tech Pakistan. EMIs have an outstanding e-money balance of Rs2 billion, managing 1.6 million e-money wallets and 2.4 million payment cards as of March 31, 2023.

There are around 12 EMIs at different stages of acquiring licenses from the central bank. There are also dozens of companies that are in constant talks with the SBP to become EMIs. 

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Pakistan rules out Plan B rumours in case of IMF programme failure

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  • Budgetary framework has been shared with IMF, says minister.
  • Dr Pasha says IMF did not accept external financing gap of $4.5bn.
  • Adds there is a trust deficit because of PTI govt.

ISLAMABAD: Minister of State for Finance Dr Aisha Ghaus Pasha has ruled out any possibility of contemplating upon any other option — Plan B — in case Pakistan fails to woo the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revive the stalled loan programme, The News reported Friday.

“Let me say with clarity there were no other options that we are contemplating upon under Plan B in case of no revival of the Fund programme as the government was committed to reviving the IMF programme by completing the pending ninth review,” she said.

During a briefing of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance at the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) headquarters, MNA Ali Pervez Malik questioned Dr Pasha about Plan B in case of failure to revive the IMF programme and said that there was talk about a dollar amnesty scheme to improve dollar liquidity.

The minister further revealed that the Fund did not accept the external financing gap of $4.5 billion assessed by Pakistan. 

Dr Pasha disclosed that the IMF was still sticking to its projection of a financing gap of $6 billion for the ongoing financial year against Islamabad’s assessment of $4.5 billion on which assurances extended to the IMF by multilateral as well as bilateral creditors.

She went on to say that the government has shared the budgetary framework for the next fiscal year to satisfy the IMF. However, Pakistan has been waiting for the IMF’s response to share its recent steps to bridge the gap between interbank and open market rates on exchange rates, and assurances on external financing gaps. 

It should be noted that a broader agreement on these three major conditions could only pave the way for striking a staff-level agreement.

The minister clarified that the sharing of budgetary numbers is not the part of ninth review as it will be part of the 10th review but Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has decided to share the numbers for the revival of the Fund programme.

A senior official of the State Bank of Pakistan informed the NA panel that the permission granted for credit cards from exchange companies to interbank rate would require $70 million to $100 million on average on a monthly basis and recommended the FBR for raising taxes on transactions through credit cards in foreign exchange in the upcoming budget to compress demands for increased foreign exchange requirements.

Dr Pasha said that there was a trust deficit, not because of the incumbent regime, but blamed the last PTI-led government for breaching the IMF agreement by doling out un-targeted fuel and electricity subsidies just before leaving the government in the last financial year. 

She said that Saudi Arabia had granted assurances of $2 billion in additional deposits, while $1 billion have been committed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

The World Bank committed $450 million through the RISE-II programme loan and $250 million through Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 

The remaining are expected through Geneva pledges in the aftermath of flood assistance. 

Pakistan, she said, secured financing assurances of $4.5 billion. Initially, it was planned that out of $6 billion, the government would get assurances on $3 billion before signing the staff-level agreement. She said that the government paid back $3 billion to commercial banks with the understanding that it would get re-financed these loans once the SLA is done. 

“We also expect that after the revival of the IMF programme, other avenues of securing dollars will also open up” she added.

The ongoing IMF programme is going to expire on June 30 therefore the time is limited for completion of the pending 9th review under the $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). 

If the staff-level agreement is reached by evolving a broader consensus on three contentious issues including external financing, budgetary framework, and sticking to the free market exchange rate then the programme will be revived otherwise the programme will be met with failure. 

However, the sources said that Pakistan would be left with no other option but to seek another IMF programme next fiscal year keeping in view debt external repayments of $25 billion. 

It does not include the current account deficit and if it is projected in the range of $7-8 billion for the next fiscal year then the total external financing requirements will be stretched up to $32-33 billion in 2023-24.

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