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Rupee sinks further, falls to new low against US dollar

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  • Local unit closes at 287.29 against the US dollar.
  • Rupee down 2.25 against greenback in interbank market.
  • Importers have resumed the panic buying of US dollars.

Pakistani rupee touched a record low on Tuesday as the country struggles to unlock critical International Monetary Fund (IMF) funding while dwindling foreign exchange reserves become another source of concern for investors.

The local unit, in the interbank market, closed at 287.29 against the US dollar, 0.78%, or Rs2.25, down from Monday’s close of 285.04.

Last month, the rupee hit a record low, closing at Rs285.09 per US dollar on March 2, 2023, the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed. 

A trend curve of rupee-dollar parity. — Arif Habib Limited
A trend curve of rupee-dollar parity. — Arif Habib Limited

Financial pundits believe that importers have resumed the panic buying of US dollars, while the supply of foreign currency remained low in the interbank market.

Pakistan’s loan programme is yet to materialise months after it raised taxes and energy prices and allowed the currency to depreciate to meet IMF’s conditions. The nation has missed multiple deadlines to resume its bailout. 

The cash-strapped nation secured a $6 billion IMF bailout in 2019. It was topped up with another $1 billion last year to help the country following devastating floods, but the IMF then suspended disbursements in November due to Pakistan’s failure to make more progress on fiscal consolidation.

After months-long unfruitful talks, the Washington-based lender has asked Pakistan to seek commitments for new loans from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates before it revives the bailout.

The IMF’s resident representative for Pakistan said the country has a few more tasks to complete to meet requirements for a $6.5 billion bailout. The lender approved a $3 billion loan program for Sri Lanka last month to ease its economic crisis.

“Uncertainty on IMF and friendly countries inflow affecting rupee,” said Mohammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities. 

“Some of the ruling coalition partners are due to visit Saudi Arabia next week and it is a key event to watch,” it added. 

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar will be leading a high-powered delegation to the US which will attend the upcoming annual spring meeting of the Bretton Woods Institutions, known as the IMF and World Bank, from April 10 to 16.

Moreover, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have also declined in recent weeks, which is another source of concern for investors. The forex reserves held by the central bank stand at a critical level of only $4.24 billion (as of March 24, 2023).

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Exchange achieves all-time high: KSE-100 index surpasses 72,500 points

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With the benchmark KSE-100 index hitting a record-breaking high of 72,501 points, the Karachi Stock Exchange saw yet another incredible rise.

Within Pakistan’s financial environment, investors demonstrated a strong sense of trust in the market as the bullish trend continued.

As a result of the significant inflow of investment and optimism among market players, the index had an amazing 450-point rise during the trading session.

In their analysis of the market’s remarkable performance, financial analysts pointed to a number of causes for the upward trend, such as encouraging economic data, robust company profits, and the government’s proactive measures to promote economic expansion.

The durability and upward momentum of the market have also been greatly aided by continuous infrastructural investments and efforts meant to boost investor confidence.

In the meantime, interbank rates increased by six paisas, and the US dollar’s value saw a slight rise in the currency market. As a result of the current market conditions and the dynamic nature of foreign exchange swings, the dollar was quoted at Rs 278.45 in the interbank market.

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The investment plan for K-Electric will be audited every three months.

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In light of K-Electric’s inability to persuade NEPRA with its Rs. 484 billion investment plan, the regulatory body has decided to hold off on making changes to the utility’s Transmission & Distribution Investment Plan until FY 2030.

As stated in the order, the NEPRA will select the terms of reference (ToR) for the third-party audit in addition to announcing the quarterly audit. A report on the company’s investment plan’s progress will need to be submitted every quarter.

A performance report would also be required under the investment plan by K-Electric, Karachi’s only power distribution utility, according to the statement. A secure mechanism to avoid electrical mishaps was also mandated by the authority to the utility.

In the meantime, the power distribution firm stated in a statement that the investment plan will boost the utility’s infrastructure to meet present and future demands, decrease transmission and distribution losses, and increase customer base growth.

With investments totaling Rs. 544 billion, KE has been able to more than halve its T&D losses and quadruple its customer base and power consumption since privatisation, according to the statement.

A hearing in March 2023 was held to inform stakeholders about the projects that KE management had planned for FY2024–FY2030, and the statement claimed that the plan had been presented in compliance with regulatory requirements.

In terms of investment areas including expansion, energy loss reduction, network rehabilitation, maintenance, and safety, KE claimed to have clearly defined priorities and projects for this era.

The plan calls for the construction of transmission lines and grids, which will increase the dependability of KE’s network and make it possible to take on more electricity from the National Grid.

In order to manage the city’s needs through targeted investments and tech-based interventions, CEO KE Moonis Alvi said, “We are looking to invest $2 billion in Transmission and Distribution over the next 7 years.” The work of all the stakeholders who have contributed to this trip and who will help us modernise our infrastructure and get ready for the future is something I’d like to acknowledge.

The investment plan is a supplement to the business’s Power Acquisition Programme, which outlines KE’s goal of having 30% renewable energy in its generation mix by 2030. As part of its efforts to provide everyone with access to reasonably priced energy, the firm has also been granted regulatory permission for its RFPs for 640 MW of renewable projects.

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$399 million in airline revenue is being blocked by Pakistan. IATA

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Pakistan and Bangladesh have been urged by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to promptly release airline profits that are being withheld in violation of international agreements.

“Airlines are unable to repatriate over $720 million ($399 million in Pakistan and $323 million in Bangladesh) of revenues earned in these markets, resulting in a severe situation,” an IATA statement stated.

“Money-denominated expenses like lease agreements, spare parts, overflight fees, and fuel must be paid for in a timely manner by repatriating revenues to their home countries.”

Delaying repatriation raises exchange rate risks for airlines and violates bilateral agreements’ international commitments. In order for airlines to effectively continue to offer the aviation connectivity that both of these countries depend on, Pakistan and Bangladesh must immediately release the more than $720 million that they are blocking, according to Philip Goh, Regional Vice President for Asia-Pacific at IATA.

Pakistan needs to make the difficult repatriation procedure less complicated. According to the statement, this presently includes the need to present audit certifications and tax exemption certificates, both of which create needless delays.

Approximately 425,000 jobs and $2.8 billion in economic activity were supported by Pakistan’s aviation industry prior to COVID-19. Passenger numbers are predicted to increase by more than 2.5 times by 2040 after returning to pre-COVID levels in 2023, according to the statement.

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