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Rupee falls as long march offsets ADB inflow impact

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  • Rupee closes at 220.68 against dollar in interbank market.
  • Local unit didn’t react positively to news of ADB inflows.
  • Analyst says outlook for rupee will depend on political climate.

KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee Thursday continued to register losses due to political unrest in the wake of PTI’s long march towards Islamabad. 

The local unit closed at Rs220.68 after depreciating Rs0.95, or 0.43%, compared to Wednesday’s close of 219.73. 

The rupee snapped its gaining streak as the currency market didn’t react positively to news of receiving inflows from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) into the country.

Pakistan received $1.5 billion from the ADB last night, however, the much-awaited loan failed to currency market players.

Speaking to Geo.tv, Pakistan-Kuwait Head of Research Samiullah Tariq said that the rupee movement is market-determined, so the supply drives the demand.

He added that there is a bit of pressure from the imports and the political uncertainty impacted the currency.

PTI will begin its march towards Islamabad tomorrow from Lahore which would trigger further political and economic uncertainty. 

“The outlook for the rupee will depend on the political climate. However, another inflow from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) may improve sentiment,” he added.

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The KSE-100 Index rises following a sharp decline in the previous session.

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The government is considering filing a treason case under Article 6 against PTI founder Imran Khan, former president Arif Alvi, and former deputy speaker Qasim Suri. On Tuesday, the KSE-100 Index was up more than 1.3% during early trading, following a day of roughly a 2 percent loss due to growing political unrest and the potential banning of the party.

However, the benchmark index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange was trading at 79,074.63 by 11:49 a.m., having gained 535.45 points, or 0.68 percent, after reaching an intraday high of 79,578.04.

Market analysts said that political tensions were the primary cause of the KSE-100’s earlier Monday decline of 1578.71 points, or 1.97 percent.

They did point out, though, that a correction was a reasonable reaction to the protracted upswing that allowed the benchmark mark index to reach 81,839.86 on July 18.

As a result of interest rate cuts and the possibility of another IMF program, the Pakistan Stock Exchange has gained 22.97 percent so far this year. The cycle began on June 10 with a 1.5 percent decrease in borrowing costs.

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In interbank trade, the US dollar crushes the Pakistani rupee.

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During interbank trade on Tuesday, the US dollar’s value increased by 15 paisas, reaching Rs 278.45.

It is important to remember that Fitch Business Monitor International expressed concern about the possibility that Pakistan’s economic stability may be jeopardized by the ongoing political unrest.

The fragile situation of Pakistan’s economic recovery was emphasized by Fitch in its most recent Pakistan Country Risk Report, which also noted that economic activity has been impeded by urban protests.

(PTI),In spite of multiple successful judicial appeals, the founder of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) is expected to stay behind bars, the article notes, underscoring the fragile political environment.

With no urgent plans for new elections, this scenario suggests that the coalition administration will remain in office for the next 18 months.

Fitch also described an eventuality in which the government could change and be replaced by a technocratic administration. This suggests that the government of Pakistan would carry out the reforms demanded by the IMF, contributing to the 3.2% GDP growth expected in 2024–2025.

The policy rate has stabilized above projections, while the research predicted it may reach 16 percent this fiscal year and 14 percent the following year.

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Pakistan’s gold prices per kilogram dropped.

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When 24-karat gold dropped by Rs. 500 to Rs. 250,500 per tola on Tuesday, the price of gold fell once again on both the local and international gold markets.

By Rs429 to Rs214,763, 10 grams of gold cost less, according to the Gold Sellers Association.

Gold’s price per ounce dropped to $2391 on the international market by $11.

At Rs2920 per tola, the price of silver did not change.

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