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Rupee continues recovery against dollar on hopes of IMF deal within few days

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The rupee gained further ground against the US dollar as Pakistan was able to secure $500 million from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the expectation of striking a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The local currency gained by Rs3.46 against the greenback in the interbank market during the intraday trade. The local unit was seen changing hands 275 at around 11:47pm. 

The rupee closed the week on Friday by gaining significant ground against the US dollar. According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), it appreciated by Rs6.63, or 2.38% in the interbank market and closed at 278.46. 

Speaking to Geo.tv, Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) General Secretary Zafar Paracha citing a few reasons for the earlier dollar appreciation said that the hype was created by the country’s financial institutions and international players that manipulated and caused the rates to increase. 

“Currently, the dollar decreased against the rupee due to the market correction and it is still in the ebb and flow.  Financial credentials cannot be changed in one day which can cause the currency to depreciate or appreciate at such a scale,” said Paracha.

The destabilised currency damages Pakistan’s image and foreign direct investment (FDI) and local investors are discouraged due to this reason, he added.  

He anticipated that keeping in view the IMF agreement and the inflows from the friendly countries, the dollar should remain in the range of 260 to 265. 

Paracha also mentioned that the political condition of Pakistan has been impacting the dollar rates which never had happened before. This time we are on the very weaker side that’s why IMF is also pushing us, he noted. 

He also highlighted that the financial conditions are not bad as it is being indicated. Our inflow is $50 billion and our outflow is $60 billion, he said, adding that Pakistan requires $10 to 15 billion which has been halted. 

“If we had managed it well, reducing our expenditures and the subsidies of $17.4 billion which the government gives to our elites then it would make a huge impact”, he maintained. 

There is a very dire need of increasing our tax base, not the tax rate. No one except the salaried class and big companies pay the tax. Therefore, the government need to increase the tax base, he concluded.

Earlier today, a government official expressed hope of striking a deal with the Washington-based lender. 

Another official assured that Pakistan was expecting to strike the staff-level agreement (SLA) with the IMF in the next few days, however, the Fund was reluctant to give any time frame for finalising the agreement.

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Over 500 points are lost by PSX stocks during intraday trading.

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The market saw a bearish trend as it dropped more than 500 points, just hours after Pakistan’s Stock Exchange (PSX) reached a new milestone by reaching the 73,000 mark.

As compared to the previous close of 72,742.75 points, the KSE-100 index dropped to 72,177.22 points, or 565.52 points, or 0.78% lower.
Expectations of an interest rate drop of up to 100 basis points during today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, according to Intermarket Securities director of research CFA Muhammad Saad Ali, are driving market confidence.

The market is also being driven, he continued, by favourable news flow on upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new programme.

Last Friday, the late-session purchasing fueled a 1% advance in the stocks, which helped them close close to 73,000 points. Dealers reported this.

Closed at 72,742.75 points on Friday, the benchmark KSE-100 index saw a gain of 771.35 points, or 1.07%.

Notwithstanding the turbulent session, according to Chase Securities analyst Muhammad Rizwan, “the market rebounded with a strong start and achieved a new all-time high.”.

“This impressive performance was driven by significant contributions from various sectors: fertiliser added 386 points, commercial banks contributed 174 points, the power sector provided 112 points, and cement added 93 points, collectively reversing the previous negative close and boosting market sentiment.”

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Despite global tides, Pakistan’s economy is recovering, according to Governor SBP

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Ahmad, who was speaking at the ICMA Pakistan Members Convocation, emphasised the country’s economy’s outstanding development while also highlighting the difficult macroeconomic environment of the previous year, which was marked by rising inflation, depleting foreign exchange reserves, pressure on exchange rates, and increased uncertainty.

Nonetheless, in the present times, the PKR has stabilized and the stock market is rising to unprecedented heights, reserves have increased to around US$8 billion despite large debt repayments, and inflation is dramatically decreasing.

Ahmad gave the government and SBP credit for their unwavering commitment to addressing macroeconomic difficulties head-on for this reversal.

Ahmad emphasized that the government’s efforts to reduce spending and achieve fiscal consolidation, together with the need for unpopular but necessary actions like the SBP’s increase of the policy rate to 22%, are producing beneficial results.

As global shocks like climate change, technology improvements, and cyber threats become more complex, he emphasises the significance of new viewpoints and creative solutions in tackling long-standing economic concerns.

Congratulating the graduating accounting professionals, Ahmad emphasized the importance of having a thorough understanding of accounting, finance, and economics in order to create workable solutions. He also urged the professionals to take a proactive approach to addressing new difficulties.

Ahmad emphasized the value of leadership abilities in policymaking and urged graduates to positively impact Pakistan’s economic landscape by working hard, being devoted to excellence, and contributing their full effort.

Along with giving a hearty welcome to Governor Jameel Ahmad and other SBP dignitaries, ICMA Pakistan President Shehzad Ahmed Malik also praised the SBP team’s efforts to stabilize the currency. With that, Ahmad presented the graduating CMAs with their degrees.

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The IMF board is anticipated to approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

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The IMF executive board meeting is scheduled to go until May 3, according to specifics. Based on the sources, it is expected that the international lender will approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

The State Bank of Pakistan is anticipated to obtain the final tranche from the IMF tomorrow, following approval, they added.

On July 12, 2023, Pakistan took advantage of a $3 billion loan package offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Thus far, Pakistan has been granted two installments totaling $1.9 billion: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

On the last assessment of a $3 billion loan plan, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month.

Following their week-long visit to Islamabad, which ended on March 19, the IMF delegation made the announcement.

Global lender expressed its optimism that the incoming caretaker administration and central bank of Pakistan would persist in their efforts to stabilize the country’s economy, complimenting them on their “strong program implementation.”

In order to further solidify economic and financial stability, the new government is dedicated to carrying out the policy initiatives that were initiated under the existing Stand-By Arrangement for the balance of this year, the IMF official stated.

In June of last year, the IMF granted Pakistan’s economic stabilization program support through a critical nine-month agreement.

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