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‘PTI’s popularity is 70%’: How credible is the survey Imran Khan cited?

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Former prime minister Imran Khan has made a bullish claim, insisting that a recent survey finds his political party’s popularity soaring to 70% in the Punjab province. But the survey Khan has cited, may be based on limited and arguably sketchy data, Geo Fact Check finds.

“Look at this graph,” the 70-year-old leader said, in a recorded video message on Wednesday, “The result of a survey. This tells you that right now the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is 70% popular.”

He repeated the claim in an interview with Al Jazeera on the same day.

The survey Khan is quoting was conducted by an Islamabad-based think tank, which goes by the name of Republic Policy.

As per the website of the think tank, the poll was conducted between May 10 and 15 in Punjab and its data found that 70% of the respondents it reached out to had a favourable opinion of Imran Khan.

While the former prime minister’s political rivals, Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz had a combined popularity of only 18%.

However, neither the think tank’s web portal nor its YouTube channel provides any additional information on the methodology used to collect the information, the cities and rural areas in Punjab it targeted or the sample size of the survey.

Tahir Maqsood Chheena, one of the heads of Republic Policy, told Geo Fact Check over the phone, that 10-15 students, who worked as volunteers, helped him complete the survey.

“I also called people myself,” he added, “People who I knew, as well as sent teams in the field.”

Even more astounding is the sample size of the survey.

Chheena alleged that the think tank interviewed 25 people in each union council of the province. Punjab has over 4,015 union councils, which would mean that the Republic Policy reached out to an astounding 100,375 people in just five days.

“I cannot tell you an exact number of the sample size,” Chheena said, “It could have been 90,000 or 100,000.”

When asked if his team identified people scientifically, based on their income and profession, amongst other things. He said: “We did nothing as such. You have the right to say we did not do it [the survey] properly. Next time we will keep this in mind.”

The Republic Policy conducted a similar survey in March, where it again found Imran Khan’s popularity to be 62% in Punjab, much ahead of all other politicians.

Bilal Gilani, the executive director at Gallup Pakistan, said that in order to determine the quality of a survey it is important to tell the readers the sample size and the profile of the respondents interviewed, in terms of profession etc.

“I saw this survey and it didn’t tell you the sample size or the profiles,” he told Geo Fact Check.

He added that as per the international code of ethics for polling organisations, they must transparently disclose all information about themselves, including what they do and how.

“Even these details are scarce about the Republic Policy,” he said.

What is Republic Policy?

The think tank was launched in November 2022, Chheena said. It is run by him and “some other friends” who are all retired civil servants. Chheena himself is a former police official.

On social media, most of its tweets are favourable to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

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Accepting provisional respite: Sanam Javed and family relocated to KP House

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Sanam Javed, the leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and her family have moved into KP Home, an Islamabad guest home.

As a result of the Islamabad High Court’s order to postpone her arrest until Thursday, Sanam Javeed is currently free.

Records of cases filed against her have also been sought by the court.

As instructed by Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur of KPK, the PTI leader and her family were received at the KP House. The CM communicated with Ms. Javeed’s father and husband.

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Adiala Jail is visited by a NAB team to question Khan and Bushra Bibi.

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As per a recent Toshakhana reference, a team from the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has reached Adiala Jail with the intention of probing PTI founder Imran Khan and his spouse PTI Bibi.

The NAB team questioning Khan and Bushra Bibi is led by deputy director Mohsin Haroon, according to jail sources.

Regarding the latest corruption reference, the pair is behind bars. Today is the third day that the NAB team has been looking into them.

They answered questions from the NAB team for more than three hours on Monday.

After the fresh reference, Khan and Bushra Bibi were placed under physical remand for eight days by Judge Muhammad Ali Warraich of the Accountability Court.

See Also: Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi are detained in NAB prison for eight days in connection with the Toshakhana case

The release of Khan and Bushra Bibi in the Iddat case was earlier ordered by District and Sessions Judge Afzal Majoka, who also postponed their sentences.

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Imran Khan has been placed on a 10-day physical remand in relation to 9 cases that occurred on May 9.

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Imran Khan, the founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has been placed in 10-day physical remand by the anti-terrorism court of Lahore. This action is in relation to 12 charges from May 9.

The remand is related to several cases filed against the PTI founder at different police stations, including Sarwar Road, Gulberg, Race Course, Shadman, Mughalpura, and Model Town.

Imran Khan was presented via a video link due to the prosecutor’s claim of ‘security concerns’ as the reason for not physically bringing him to the location.

During the court proceedings, the PTI founder presented his argument to the judge, asserting that his objective was to engage in nonviolent protest, notwithstanding the allegations made against him.

He stressed his appeal for a judicial investigation into the events of May 9 and urged the Chief Justice of Pakistan to intervene.

The PTI founder firmly stated that he has never encouraged or provoked violence throughout his 28-year career, completely denying any participation in the disturbances that occurred on May 9th. He highlighted inconsistencies in the CCTV footage and the handling of his requests.

Advocate Azhar Siddique, who is representing the PTI founder, presented arguments in favor of his client’s innocence, emphasizing the absence of evidence against him throughout Pakistan’s 72-year history.

The public prosecutor cited a video posted by the PTI founder on May 9, 2023, which is currently being examined for authentication.

Judge Khalid Arshad Malik promised to record the arguments and render decisions based on the legal merits of the case. Nevertheless, he expressed reservations over the PTI founder’s nonattendance in court, citing security justifications offered by the prosecution.

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