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Petrol, diesel prices likely to witness sharp increase in next review on Jan 31

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  • Petrol, HSD expected to go up by Rs7 per litre each on Jan 31, 2024.
  • Domestic prices slashed several times in last three months. 
  • Expected jump based on global prices of HSD, petrol and crude oil.

ISLAMABAD: Following back-to-back relief in fuel prices, the caretaker government is likely to increase the prices of petrol and high speed diesel (HSD) in the next fortnightly review on January 31, The News reported on Thursday.

The expected hike in fuel prices is due to a surge in international oil rates amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, industry officials said on Wednesday.

The government, which adjusts the prices of petroleum products every 15 days based on the recommendations of the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority, is likely to raise the price of petrol and diesel by Rs7 per litre each on January 31, 2024, an official told The News.

The expected hike in the prices of petroleum products would come after domestic prices remained stable or witnessed a decrease since November 01, 2023.

“The situation is most likely to be different this time after petroleum prices saw some reduction in the last three months,” an oil sector official said as he pointed out that global prices of petroleum products went up in the last one week after a crisis in the Middle East, especially the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, triggering the strike from US and UK against them in Yemen.

They said that the expected jump in the domestic prices is based on the global prices of HSD, petrol and crude oil, which have fluctuated upward by four to five dollars in the last one week.

The international price of petrol jumped to $89 per barrel from $83 per barrel in one week whereas the price of HSD surged to $97-98 per barrel from $ 93 per barrel in a week.

The international price of crude oil increased to $80 per barrel from $76 per barrel.

Officials said that the $4 to $5 per barrel increase in the global prices has been translated to push the prices up in the market.

They said that the dollar in the local market is stable, otherwise the price fluctuation would have been even higher upwardly in the local market.

They added that some resistance came in the prices of these products at the international level and it is expected that in the next few days, the prices may remain at these levels.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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