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Petrol crisis to hit Pakistan by mid-Feb, refineries warn

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  • Delay in payments of raw materials hamper petrol production.
  • Situation to become critical if remedial measures not taken immediately.
  • Punjab already experiencing unavailability of petrol.

KARACHI: The refineries warned of a looming petrol crisis by mid-February if the government fails to resolve the payments issues of imported raw materials and additives needed by the sector, The News reported Friday. 

The delay in payments of raw materials and additives as well as the dollar shortage hampered the production of petrol massively, the refineries explained. 

“The situation will become extremely critical mid-February 2023, if remedial measures are not taken immediately,” local refineries warned State Minister for Petroleum Dr Musadik Malik and Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Dr Jameel Ahmed in separate letters. The letters were jointly written by Pakistan Refinery Limited, National Refinery, Attock Refinery and Cnergyico Refinery.

Difficulties in establishing letters of credit (LCs) for the payment of raw materials and other inputs needed by the refineries have been cited as the major cause of the looming crisis. Punjab has already started experiencing the unavailability of petrol, after alleged hoarding in anticipation of the price hike expected in the next fortnightly review.

The copy of the letter available with The News says that the SBP issued a priority list of essential imports for foreign remittances of critical industries and petroleum products were included in that priority list.

However, imports of essential raw materials and additives mainly N-Methylaniline (NMA — a non-metallic RON booster) against which LCs have already been established were being held by the banks for release of documents and payments. Moreover, the banks are reluctant to establish LCs for NMA imports against which payment for month of February/March 2023 are falling, it stated.

Refineries cautioned that the delay or suspension of foreign payments for imports of such essential raw material/additives including establishing credit letters for the same would seriously hamper the operations of refineries, especially the local production of mogas (petrol).

Refineries noted that maximum production of indigenous petroleum products especially mogas at this critical time was the need of the hour, as oil marketing companies (OMCs) were already finding it difficult to import the fuel due to the foreign exchange liquidity crunch.

They added that the refining sector has been contributing enormously towards the economic development of Pakistan in the shape of revenues/government levies/taxes and more importantly processing of crude oil and substantial savings in precious foreign exchange through import substitution.

The letter said that the sector with such major contributions to foreign exchange savings should not be denied permission to remit a payment/establish credit letters to further its business operations.

Refineries asked the central bank to advise banks to release/establish credit letters for refineries, and remittances against already issued letters without further delay to avoid any unpleasant situation.

PPDA urges probe into shortage

Keeping in view the shortages that have been surfacing in different parts of the country, Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (PPDA) has asked the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources to immediately formulate a committee to find out the reasons behind this shortage. 

The committee should consist of different stakeholders comprising the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), media teams and district administrations. These combined teams should raid different oil depots, and pumps to find out the reasons behind the current shortage, especially in Punjab.

The association leaders on Thursday held a discussion programme with the Lahore Economic Journalists Association. The office bearers of PPDA said that drafts of around Rs1 billion have been stuck with oil companies, and these 12,000 dealers were not getting supplies from the OMCs.

They said that normally a petrol pump can reserve 30,000 to 50,000 litres of petroleum products and as per OGRA’s instructions, pump owners must keep these reserves for three days. On the other hand, oil depots have much more capacity to reserve oil stocks. The committee should inspect such depots and act according to the law if their involvement in stocking petroleum products is proven, they urged.

The association said that in Lahore, the daily demand for oil products was 4 million litres, whereas currently only a supply of 1.3 million litres was being providedThe pumps have been facing this low supply issue for one month.

“The companies shelve the supply to nearly half twice a month as cartelization has increased in the past six years,” they alleged. The PPDA also termed the recent statement of State Minister for Petroleum Musadaq Malik as “non-serious”, saying such an irresponsible statement could lead to further chaos.

PPDA said that the OMCs were deliberately creating a shortage, and were holding on to hundreds of thousands of liters of oil stocks, which would be released once the government increases prices.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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