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Pakistan’s pace of economic growth to slow down to 4% in FY22: ADB

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3 years ago

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  • ADB, however, says growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in FY23.
  • “Pakistan’s economy is recovering steadily due to well-coordinated fiscal and monetary responses to the pandemic,” ADB country director says.
  • Manilla-based institute notes that in FY22, industrial growth is forecast to decelerate.

ISLAMABAD: Following a remarkable economic rebound in the previous fiscal year 2020-21, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projected Pakistan’s economic growth to slow down to 4% in the ongoing fiscal year 2021-22 amid tighter fiscal and monetary policies before picking up again in the fiscal year 2022-23.

According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), 2022 — ADB’s annual flagship economic publication — Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow to 4% in FY22 from 5.6% in FY21 as the government applies measures to reduce the current account deficit, raise international reserves, and cut inflation.

“Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in FY23 due to stronger private consumption and investment,” the Manilla-based institution projected.

Commenting on the forecast, ADB Country Director for Pakistan Yong Ye said: “Pakistan’s economy is recovering steadily thanks to well-coordinated fiscal and monetary responses to the pandemic.”

“These led to a remarkable expansion in the industry and services sectors. It is key to continue structural reforms along with appropriate fiscal and monetary policies to contain rising inflation and external imbalances. Comprehensive reforms in tax policy and administration are also critical to boosting revenues in order to fund essential public services. ADB is fully committed to supporting Pakistan’s sustainable development.”

The ADB further noted that in FY22, industrial growth is forecast to decelerate, reflecting fiscal and monetary tightening together with significant depreciation of the local currency, and upward adjustments to domestic oil and electricity prices.

Meanwhile, agriculture is expected to continue lending impetus to GDP growth supported by the government’s package of subsidised inputs and increased support prices of wheat and sugarcane.

The Manilla-based institution further added that inflation declined to 8.9% in FY21 but is expected to pick up in FY22 to around 11% due to higher international energy prices, significant currency depreciation, and elevated global food prices from supply disruptions.

As a net importer of oil and gas, Pakistan will continue experiencing strong inflationary pressures for the remainder of FY22 from the jump in global fuel prices resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Inflationary pressures are likely to be less pronounced in FY23, with inflation forecast to drop to 8.5% as fiscal consolidation progresses and oil and commodity prices stabilize,” the report mentioned.

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Business

Trade ties between Pak-Oman: Both nations decide to activate “Joint Business Council”.

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Jam Kamal Khan, federal minister for commerce, visited Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Muscat alongside chairman Faisal Abdullah Al Rawas.

To enable closer economic collaboration, both sides decided during the meeting to activate joint Business Council between OCCI and the federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and industry.

Concurrent with the conference, the Embassy of Pakistan arranged a b2b networking event in association with OCCI to gather Omani Businessmen and Pakistani Business Delegates investigating trade prospects.

Speaking on the occasion, Jam Kamal Khan said, “Our present trade figures do not fairly represent the depth of our connection. We can quickly raise the current Trade volume to two or three times its present level by just eliminating logistical and communication barriers.

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Despite economic gains, PSX remains strong.

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Amidst the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding a loan tranche, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has resumed its upward trajectory in recent days.

The KSE-100 Index gained 600 points on Friday, the penultimate working day of the business week, and then increased to 115,730 points as traders showed confidence and engaged in trading.

After experiencing fluctuations, the PSX gained strength on Thursday, as the major index surpassed 115,000 points.

The KSE 100-Index closed at 115,094.23 points after gaining 1,009.70 points, or 0.89 percent. 115,247.39 was the intraday high, and 14,429.93 was the lowest.

According to experts, one important factor is Moody’s Ratings’ upgrade of Pakistani banks. Investor confidence has also increased due to the expectation of a positive conclusion from the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In its assessment, Moody’s stated, “We have shifted our outlook on Pakistan’s banking system from stable to positive to reflect the banks’ resilient financial performance as well as improving macroeconomic conditions from very weak levels a year ago.”

The major index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) surpassed 115,000 on Thursday, indicating a surge in the market.

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Pakistan resolves to meet benchmarks, and the IMF promises economic help.

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In the midst of an ongoing economic review, the delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has promised Pakistan economic cooperation.

In order to assess the delivery of a $1 billion tranche under the $7 billion rescue deal, IMF officials are now in Pakistan.

Today, March 14, marks the completion of the two-week-long economic review and negotiations between the global lender’s representatives and Pakistani authorities.

The team met with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb at the Ministry of Finance for the last round of negotiations.

The nation’s economic team’s actions and performance were praised by the visiting officials.

Aurangzeb promised the IMF during the conference that all economic goals would be met. He said that as long as the loan program is in place, no goals would be broken.

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