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Oil prices fall amid growing concerns over global economy

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Brent futures and US crude falls by more than 4%.Concern about oversupply continue to cloud the oil market.Dollar weakens on Wednesday after big gains in the previous session.

LONDON: Oil fell sharply on Wednesday after slumping in the previous session, weighed down by demand concerns stemming from the state of the global economy and rising COVID cases in China.

Brent futures fell $3.04 to $79.06 a barrel for a 3.7% loss by 1452 GMT. US crude dropped $2.91, or 3.8%, to $74.02.

Both benchmarks plunged more than 4% on Tuesday, with Brent suffering its biggest one-day decline in more than three months.

“Worries about the state of the global economy are front and centre of traders’ minds and will remain so for the foreseeable future,” said PVM Oil analyst Stephen Brennock.

The Chinese government also increased export quotas for refined oil products in the first batch for 2023, signalling expectations of poor domestic demand.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia could cut prices for its flagship Arab Light crude grade to Asia in February, having been set at a 10-month low for this month, as concern about oversupply continued to cloud the market.

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that much of the global economy would face a tough year in 2023 because the main engines of global growth — the United States, Europe and China — were all experiencing weakening activity.

Monetary policy is also in focus, with the US Federal Reserve having raised interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in December after four consecutive increases of 75 bps each. If the Fed intensifies its rate hikes, that could slow the economy and hamper fuel consumption.

OPEC oil output rose in December, a Reuters survey found on Wednesday, despite an agreement by the wider OPEC+ alliance to cut production targets to support the market.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 29 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, up 120,000 bpd from November.

Lending oil some support, the dollar weakened on Wednesday after posting big gains in the previous session. A weaker dollar typically boosts demand for oil because dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

US crude oil stockpiles are likely to have risen by 2.2 million barrels, with distillate inventories expected to have fallen, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Industry group American Petroleum Institute is due to release data on US crude inventories at 4:30pm EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday. The Energy Information Administration will release its figures at 10:30am (1430 GMT) on Thursday.

Bank UBS expects Brent prices to rise to $110 a barrel and WTI to rise to $107 in 2023.

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Robust activity lets PSX climb above 115,000 level again.

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On Friday, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) resumed its upward trend, crossing 115,000 points once more.

The PSX had strong action in the morning session, as the KSE-100 index increased by 1,000 points to 115,138.

The notoriously volatile PSX closed Thursday at 114,037 points, up 594 points.

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Meanwhile, in the interbank market this morning, the US dollar fell 7 paisas to Rs278.65 against the Pakistani rupee.

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SBP will announce monetary policy on January 27.

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The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will release its monetary policy on Monday.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SBP will convene on the first day of the following week to make decisions on monetary policy.

The Monetary Policy decision will be announced by Governor SBP Jameel Ahmad at a news conference on the same day after the MPC meeting, according to an official release.

In December, the central bank reduced policy rates by 200 basis points (bps) to 13 percent.

“In November 2024, headline inflation fell to 4.9 percent year on year, meeting the MPC’s estimates. This decrease was mostly caused by the ongoing decline in food inflation and the phasing out of the impact of the gas tariff increase in November 2023,” SBP stated in an official release.

“However, the Committee noted that core inflation, at 9.7 percent, is proving to be sticky, while consumer and business inflation expectations remain volatile.” To that end, the Committee restated its previous assessment that inflation may remain volatile in the short term before stabilizing within the target range.

“At the same time, growth prospects have slightly improved, as evidenced by a recent increase in high-frequency indicators of economic activity.” Overall, the Committee concluded that its approach of gradual policy rate decreases is keeping inflationary and external account pressures under control while promoting long-term economic growth.

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Finance Minister Meets With World Leaders at World Economic Forum in Davos

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During his attendance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has met with officials of organisations and leaders of many nations.
Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor, Muhammad Younas, met with Mohammad Aurangzeb.
On the fringes of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2025 Opening Banquet, there was an informal meeting.
Additionally, the Finance Minister met with Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Both leaders discussed economic cooperation and bilateral ties.
Muhammad Aurangzeb also had a meeting with Dp World’s Rizwan Soomro and Yuvraj Narayan.
They talked about how to strengthen Pakistan’s logistics and infrastructure systems to support trade.
“The Pakistani government is committed to advancing joint projects and values partnerships in both business-to-business and business-to-government cooperation,” the finance minister added.

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