Business

Not consulted on petrol subsidy for low-income groups: IMF

Published

9 months ago

Farwa

IMF seeks details on operation, cost, targeting, protections against fraud and abuse, and offsetting measures.
Govt, a day earlier, had announced subsidy help inflation-hit masses.
IMF says Islamabad has made “substantial progress” on policy commitments.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the Pakistani government did not consult the global lender on its petrol subsidy for low-income groups, reported Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Esther Perez, the IMF’s resident representative for Pakistan, told the publication that the lender was not consulted on the government’s plan to raise fuel prices for wealthier motorists to finance a subsidy for lower-income people.

“Fund staff are seeking greater details on the scheme in terms of its operation, cost, targeting, protections against fraud and abuse, and offsetting measures, and will carefully discuss these elements with the authorities,” said Perez.

‘This is not subsidy’

A day earlier, Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik announced that the federal government in order to cushion the effect of high petrol prices on inflation-hit masses decided to subsidise petrol up to Rs100 for motorcyclists and owners of vehicles up to 800cc.

“Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has directed to provide subsidy on petrol to low-income people up to Rs100 per litre,” Malik told journalists in Lahore.

Earlier, it was decided to provide a subsidy of Rs50 per litre.

The minister said under a comprehensive strategy, subsidised petrol will be available to motorcyclists and owners of vehicles up to 800cc.

Malik further said owners of vehicles above 800cc would be charged full price.

He said the decision to provide fuel at subsidised rates will be implemented within six weeks, adding that the government will make petrol cheaper for the poor.

“The owners of big vehicles will pay more for petrol. The rich will pay Rs100 more for petrol while the poor will pay Rs100 less. 210 million people are poor in a population of 220 million, we stand with poor Pakistan.”

He said that the decision on the gas tariff has been implemented from January 1. “We have separate tariffs for the poor and the rich.”

Pakistan has made ‘substantial progress’: IMF

On the staff level agreement, the IMF said that Islamabad has made “substantial progress” in meeting the policy commitments required to unlock billions of dollars in loans.

“A staff-level agreement will follow once the few remaining points are closed,” said Perez told Bloomberg.

“Ensuring there is sufficient financing to support the authorities in the implementation of their policy agenda is the paramount priority.”

Last week, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar had said that the global lender wanted to see countries finalise commitments they have promised to help Pakistan shore up its funds before signing off on the bailout package. Pakistan needs to repay about $3 billion of debt by June, while $4 billion is expected to be rolled over.

Pakistan has taken tough measures including increasing taxes and energy prices, and allowing its currency to weaken to restart a $6.5 billion IMF loan package. The funds will offer some relief to a nation still reeling from last year’s devastating floods and help pull the economy out of a crisis ahead of elections this year.

Business

November inflation to spike on gas price adjustment, dashing slowdown hopes

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

CPI likely to rise to 28.6-29.6% year-on-year in Nov.
Inflation rate could register 2.1% month-on-month jump.
Weekly SPI on Nov 16 showed 480% surge in gas prices.

KARACHI: Inflation is expected to surge in November, primarily due to a massive hike in gas prices, according to brokerage reports released on Wednesday.

The consumer price index (CPI), which measures changes in the prices of goods and services, is likely to rise to 28.6-29.6% year-on-year in November, up from 26.9% in October.

A report by brokerage firm Insight Securities predicts that the inflation rate will register a 2.1% month-on-month jump, defying earlier expectations of a gradual slowdown from September onwards. Optimus Capital Management estimates that the CPI will increase by 2.9% month-on-month, primarily driven by an 11.6% jump in the housing index due to gas price revision and a 1.6% increase in the food index.

The primary cause behind the expected spike in November inflation is the adjustment of recently imposed fixed charges within the gas tariff structure. The weekly sensitive price index (SPI) inflation released on November 16 showed an astonishing 480% surge in gas prices.

However, a slight respite is expected from a 4.0% decrease in the transport index due to lower average fuel prices in November. The impact of the gas price hike was partially mitigated by the decline in fuel prices and the month-on-month fall in the food commodity adjustment (FCA).

Food inflation is attributed to a sharp increase in the prices of perishable items such as onions, tomatoes, potatoes, and eggs, as well as tea. Despite an increase in supply from imports, wheat prices still rose month-on-month, while sugar and cooking oil showed a significant decline during this period, based on weekly SPI data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The recently implemented axle load regime, which limits the weight of goods transported by trucks, could put some pressure on the price levels of goods.

The higher October fuel cost adjustment (FCA) demanded at Rs3.5 per kilowatt hour (to be applicable in December) on electricity charges and a second-round impact of gas price increase could keep inflation under pressure. However, the base effect during the second half of the fiscal year is likely to help absorb the impact.

Commodity and energy prices, along with the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar, will remain important factors in keeping the CPI under control.

The reports projected the average inflation for the first five months of the fiscal year 2023/24 (July-June) to be 28.5%, compared with 25.2% in the same period last year and with an estimated ending at 19.4% year-on-year in June 2024.

They predicted that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is likely to maintain the interest rate in its upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting due to the higher-than-estimated inflation in November. However, the SBP could opt to initiate an easing cycle in the first quarter of 2024, given the high base effect in the second half of the fiscal year.

Business

Petrol price likely to remain unchanged in next fortnightly review

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

Petrol prices to hold steady in next review.
Diesel and kerosene prices to decline from Dec 1.
Next fortnightly review due tomorrow (Nov 31).

KARACHI: The prices of petroleum products will not see any major change in the upcoming fortnightly review with diesel and kerosene rates expected to go down slightly, according to the industry calculations.

According to a The News report published Thursday, the ex-refinery and ex-depot prices of petroleum products did not register any major fluctuation as global crude prices eased in recent days.

The ex-depot price of petrol, the most widely used fuel in the country, is slightly higher by Rs0.19 per litre to Rs281.53 per litre compared to the current price of Rs281.34, industry officials said.

The ex-depot price of high speed diesel (HSD), used mainly for transport, has been worked out at Rs290.47 per litre for the next fortnight compared to the existing price of Rs296.71 , showing a decline of Rs6.24 rupees per litre.

The ex-depot price of kerosene, used for cooking and lighting in rural areas, has been worked out at Rs202.16 per litre compared to the current price of Rs204.98, indicating a decrease of Rs2.82 per litre.

The ex-depot price of light speed diesel, another variant of diesel, has been worked out at Rs176.18 per litre for the next review against the present price of Rs180.45, registering a decline of Rs4.27 per litre, the report stated.

According to the industry’s working, the estimated exchange adjustment of petrol is zero whereas it is Rs1.80 per litre for HSD.

However, the industry officials said that the prices of petroleum products can change with the exchange loss as the industry did not put the exchange loss figure in its working for the next review.

The country fixes fuel prices on a fortnightly basis after evaluating fluctuating international energy market costs and the rupee-dollar parity to transfer the impact on domestic consumers.

They said global oil prices remained under pressure during November, falling below $75 a barrel in mid-November.

WTI was trading at $76.5 a barrel on November 29, down by nearly 7% as compared to October 29. Brent was down by 5.4% in the past month, trading at $86.35 a barrel, they added.

Business

Another day, another high: PSX continues bull run as KSE-100 goes past 61,000 points

Published

3 days ago

Farwa

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Wednesday reached another historic high as the bulls continue to dominate the benchmark KSE 100 index with hopes of the State Bank of Pakistan lowering the policy rate in the coming days.

Benchmark KSE-100 index at 10:09am. — Screengrab/PSX website

The benchmark index gained 702, or 1.16%, during the intraday trade and stood at 61,433 points at 10:09am.

Commenting on the bull run, Head of Research at Pakistan-Kuwait Investment, Samiullah Tariq said that the market was reacting positively because it expects an interest rate cut, a quick International Monetary Fund review and strong profitability of companies.