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Inflation in Pakistan could average 33% in first half of 2023, says Moody’s economist

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1 year ago

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  • Economy needs persistent and sound economic management.
  • Consumer price index rose 27.5% year-on-year in January.
  • Current foreign exchange reserves barely cover 18 days worth of imports.

MUMBAI/ISLAMABAD: Inflation in Pakistan could average 33% in the first half of 2023 before trending lower, and a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) alone is unlikely to put the economy back on track, a senior economist with Moody’s Analytics told Reuters.

“Our view is that an IMF bailout alone isn’t going to be enough to get the economy back on track. What the economy really needs is persistent and sound economic management,” senior economist Katrina Ell said in an interview on Wednesday.

“There’s still an inevitably tough journey ahead. We’re expecting fiscal and monetary austerity to continue well into 2024,” she added.

Pakistan and the IMF could not reach a deal last week and a visiting IMF delegation departed Islamabad after 10 days of talks, but said negotiations would continue. Pakistan is in dire need of funds as it battles a wrenching economic crisis.

An agreement on the ninth review of the programme would release over $1.1 billion of the total $2.5 billion pending as part of the current package agreed in 2019 which ends on June 30. The funds are crucial for the economy whose current foreign exchange reserves barely cover 18 days worth of imports.

“Even though the economy is in a deep recession, inflation is incredibly high as (result of) part of the latest bailout conditions,” Ell said.

“So what we’re expecting is that through the first half of this year, inflation is going to average about 33% and then might trend a little bit lower after that,” she added.

The consumer price index rose 27.5% year-on-year in January, its highest in nearly half a century.

Low-income households could remain under extreme pressure as a result of high inflation on account of being disproportionately exposed to non-discretionary items.

“Food prices are high and they can’t avoid paying for that, so we’re going to see higher poverty rates as well feed through,” the economist said.

No overnight fix

Ell said Pakistan has not has a great track record when it comes to IMF bailouts, so infusing additional funds alone may prove to be of little use.

“If we’re going to see any improvement, it’s going to be very gradual. There’s just no overnight fix,” she said.

The weaker rupee, which is plumbing record lows, is adding to imported inflation while domestically high energy costs on the back of tariff increases and still elevated food prices is likely to keep inflation high.

Moody’s expects economic growth for the 2023 calendar year of around 2.1%.

“It is likely that we will see further monetary tightening in Pakistan to try and stabilise inflation and also with the weakness in the FX they might kind of intervene there to try and force in stability, but again it’s not going to be a silver bullet,” Ell said.

Last month, the central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 17% in a bid to rein in persistent price pressures. It has raised the key rate by a total of 725 bps since January 2022.

With significant recession-type conditions in Pakistan, skyrocketing borrowing costs could really exacerbate domestic demand struggles, she said.

“You really need to see sustained sound macroeconomic management, and just injecting further funds in there without decent backing is not going to deliver the results that you’re looking for.”

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Entertainment

UAE grants Aiman Khan a Golden Visa

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14 hours ago

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The actress Aiman Khan has notified her fans and followers that the United Arab Emirates has granted her a Golden Visa.

Renowned for her dramatic roles in plays like “Ghar Titli Ka Par,” “Meri Beti,” and “Ishq Tamasha,” Aiman Khan has been spotted putting more emphasis on her personal life with her spouse, fellow actress Muneeb Butt, and moving away from the entertainment industry recently.

Instagram users saw Aiman Khan post a photo of herself receiving the Golden Visa from UAE officials.

The actress was shown gratitude in the caption for the extraordinary hospitality and kind welcome she received from the Dubai government.

Aiman Khan is shown in the accompanying photo, probably when applying for a visa, looking smart in black among representatives from the United Arab Emirates.

Fascinatingly, Aiman Khan’s spouse, Muneeb Butt, previously uploaded a comparable Instagram picture revealing his triumphant Golden Visa acquisition.

Often taking his wife, Aiman Khan, along, Muneeb Butt travels to Dubai for business and pleasure. Even after their daughter Amal was born, the well-known couple continued to observe this habit.

Furthermore, Miral, their second daughter, made her first vacation outside of Pakistan when they recently took her to Dubai.

“Dubai holds a special place in my heart, from memorable vacations to productive work trips,” Muneeb Butt complimented in the description.

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Business

Exchange achieves all-time high: KSE-100 index surpasses 72,500 points

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14 hours ago

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With the benchmark KSE-100 index hitting a record-breaking high of 72,501 points, the Karachi Stock Exchange saw yet another incredible rise.

Within Pakistan’s financial environment, investors demonstrated a strong sense of trust in the market as the bullish trend continued.

As a result of the significant inflow of investment and optimism among market players, the index had an amazing 450-point rise during the trading session.

In their analysis of the market’s remarkable performance, financial analysts pointed to a number of causes for the upward trend, such as encouraging economic data, robust company profits, and the government’s proactive measures to promote economic expansion.

The durability and upward momentum of the market have also been greatly aided by continuous infrastructural investments and efforts meant to boost investor confidence.

In the meantime, interbank rates increased by six paisas, and the US dollar’s value saw a slight rise in the currency market. As a result of the current market conditions and the dynamic nature of foreign exchange swings, the dollar was quoted at Rs 278.45 in the interbank market.

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Education

Youth from North Waziristan are given an educational and recreational tour by the Pakistan Army.

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15 hours ago

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Youth from North Waziristan set off on a three-day enjoyable and enlightening excursion as part of the Pakistan Army’s “Ilm Tolo Da Para” project.

The young participants in the trip had a great time touring some of Islamabad’s most notable sites, such as the magnificent Faisal Mosque, Ayub Park, Pakistan Museum of Natural History, Pakistan Monument Museum, Folk Heritage Museum, and the picturesque Lake View Park.

The Imam led an insightful workshop for the students at Faisal Mosque, exploring the mosque’s significance and its place in the history of the country.

The youth’s awareness of their country’s legacy was strengthened by their visits to the People’s Heritage and Pakistan Monument, which provided them with valuable insights into the sacrifices made during Pakistan’s founding.

As the eager young people engaged in exhilarating rides, games, and other leisure pursuits, Ayub National Park transformed into a playground where they made enduring memories.

The youth gave the Pakistan Army their sincere gratitude for organising this beneficial event that combined learning with leisure.

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