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IMF’s review mission expected to visit Pakistan after Feb 8 polls

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  • Mission is set to visit Pakistan for talks about $3bn SBA.
  • IMF hinted that 2nd review date revised during SBA signing.
  • 2nd review for end of Dec 2023 was planned for March 1, 2024.

ISLAMABAD: A review mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is likely to be dispatched to conduct talks with Islamabad after Pakistan’s much anticipated general elections, scheduled to be held on February 8.

The review mission is set to visit Pakistan for talks regarding the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) programme, The News reported.

According to a confirmation received by The News from top official sources, the “Fund has not yet confirmed the exact schedule for conducting the second review, so the upcoming review talks are expected to be held after the general elections”.

In its latest staff report, the IMF also hinted that the date of the second review was revised at the time of the signing of the SBA agreement in July 2023. The second review for the end of December 2023 was planned for March 1, 2024.

Now the Pakistani side proposed the review schedule for March 15, 2024, indicating that the review completion date was changed with the possibility that talks for a second review might be held after the February 8, 2024 elections.

The existing SBA programme of the IMF is scheduled to be accomplished on April 12, 2024. In case the second review is completed till mid of March, then the Fund’s Executive Board would have sufficient time to approve the last tranche of $1.1 billion for Pakistan by the second of April 2024.

It is not known how the transition from the SBA to another medium-term programme would happen when there would be a political transition in Pakistan.

Earlier, there were reports that the mainstream political parties had asked to accomplish the second review during the tenure of the caretaker setup. There are still chances that the Fund review might be done before the formation of the new government.

Many insiders believe that after the general elections, the formation of the new government was expected to be accomplished by the end of February, so the IMF review mission might visit Islamabad before the formation of the new government and complete the second review.

In April 2024, the IMF will again be visiting Pakistan to strike a broader agreement on the fresh medium-term loan programme based on which the next budget for 2024-25 will be formulated. It will be up to the next government whether it will be able to sign the fresh IMF programme before the announcement of the budget or it might be done till the approval of the budget from the upcoming elected parliament.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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