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Contraction in LSM output dims prospects of growth this fiscal year

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  • PBS data shows LSM output drops by 25% in March.
  • Big industries output witnessed highest-ever decline since COVID-19.
  • Steep contraction will increase pace of inflation, put jobs at risk.

ISLAMABAD: A steep contraction in output of large-scale manufacturing (LSM) in March has faded the prospects of achieving a positive growth figure, The News reported Tuesday. 

The delay in the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme has choked the economy consequently the LSM contracted massively; as a result, it can halt economic activities, boost already-high inflation and increase unemployment.

Although the Ministry of Finance has projected a provisional GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of positive 0.8% in its revised estimates, the latest figures of LSM for March 2023 demonstrate that it remained negative by 25%, compared to the corresponding month of the last year.

The big industries’ output witnessed the highest-ever decline since COVID-19 pandemic. In the first nine months (July-March) of the outgoing fiscal year, the LSM witnessed a contraction of 8.1%.

“Keeping in view the performance of the industrial and agriculture sector, the provisional growth figure may turn into negative up to -1%. Earlier, the efforts were underway for turning the provisional figure into positive ranging from 0 to 0.5%,” sources confirmed to The News.

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) is scheduled to hold its meeting within the ongoing week to calculate the provisional growth figures for the outgoing financial year 2022-23.

Dr Khaqan Najeeb, former finance ministry adviser, said the industrial sector had been unable to secure letters of credit due to the country being in a dollar liquidity crunch. 

The lack of access to imports has hurt industrial production as evident in the fall of LSMI output by 8.11% in the first nine months (July-March) of 2022-23.

“The revival of the IMF programme would have ensured a flow of dollars from multilaterals, bilateral and commercial monies to ease the imports and unclog the economic activity,” he said.

“It is likely that growth would be muted in the outgoing fiscal year with a contraction in the manufacturing and agriculture sector. This would create further unemployment and rise inflation due to shortfall in supplies,” he concluded.

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The State Bank of Pakistan allocates Rs 27 billion in new currency notes for Ramadan.

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Officials said on Tuesday that the State Bank of Pakistan has allocated fresh currency notes totaling 27 billion rupees to commercial banks nationwide in anticipation of Ramadan.

The central bank has distributed new banknotes to some 17,000 commercial bank branches across the country, guaranteeing ample availability during the holy month when demand for money typically rises.

The State Bank has provided explicit directives to banking institutions concerning efforts to enhance public access to the new notes. Commercial banks have been instructed to efficiently deploy their ATM networks to disseminate high-quality, pristine cash notes during Ramadan.

The State Bank has established specialized cash monitoring teams to police compliance and facilitate effective distribution at multiple bank locations. These teams will ensure that banks adhere to the established rules for currency distribution.

The program seeks to mitigate the seasonal surge in demand for fresh currency notes, especially prior to Eid celebrations, when the tradition of gift-giving using new notes is prevalent in Pakistan.

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World Bank and Pakistan Deliberate on Country Partnership Framework

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A follow-up discussion occurred in Islamabad between Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and the World Bank team to deliberate on Pakistan’s National Growth and Fiscal Program within the 10-year country partnership framework, which includes commitments of 20 billion dollars.

The framework emphasizes critical development sectors such as Health, Education, Climate Resilience, and sustainable growth.

During the discussion, Minister Aurangzeb underscored the necessity for a holistic and cohesive strategy for fiscal, trade, and private sector reforms that encompasses both Federal and Provincial levels.

He emphasized the significance of formulating reforms that are motivated by outcome-based and performance-based metrics directly associated with human development and socio-economic advancement.

The Finance Minister emphasized that a nationally coordinated strategy, as demonstrated by the national fiscal accord, is essential for maintaining macroeconomic stability.

He emphasized that this cohesive strategy will be fundamental for realizing the nation’s goals of inclusive and sustainable economic growth, while safeguarding the welfare of all citizens.

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Industrial production declines by 1.78% over seven months.

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The Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) in the country had a decline of 1.78 percent during the initial seven months (July-January) of the current fiscal year (2024-25) compared to the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

In January 2025, the LSM had a year-on-year decline of 1.22 percent compared to the same month in the previous year. In January 2024, LSM output rose by 2.09 percent month-on-month compared to December 2023.

The provisional quantum estimates for Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) for November 2024, using the base year 2015-16, have been formulated based on the most recent data provided by the source agencies.

The primary factors contributing to the overall negative growth of -1.78% include food (-0.47), tobacco (0.25), textiles (0.34), garments (1.55), petroleum products (0.17), automobiles (0.74), cement (-0.46), iron and steel products (-0.57), electrical equipment (-0.55), machinery and equipment (-0.14), and furniture (-2.16).

Production from July to January 2024-25, in comparison to July to January 2023-24, has risen in tobacco, textiles, wearing apparel, automobiles, and other transport equipment, while it has declined in food, chemical products, non-metallic mineral products, iron and steel products, electrical equipment, machinery and equipment, and furniture.

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