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Pakistan-Russia final crude oil import talks start today in Karachi

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  • PSO has been nominated on behalf of Pakistan for talks.
  • Russia’s PSC has been nominated for the talks by Moscow.
  • The PSC delegation arrived in Karachi on Monday.

ISLAMABAD: A Russian technical delegation will hold talks today (Tuesday) with Pakistan State Oil (PSO) officials in Karachi, to give final touches to a crude oil import deal at a government-to-government level (GtG), a senior Energy ministry official told The News.

“In case of successful talks, both the state-owned nominated companies will sign the commercial agreement the next day (March 22),” said the official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

PSO has been nominated as the state-owned company on behalf of Pakistan for talks and signing of the Russian crude oil import deal. The Operational Services Center (PSC), which is a state-owned company of Russia, has been nominated for the talks by Moscow.

The PSC delegation arrived in Karachi on Monday.

Both the PSC and PSO may ink the deal, as the delegation from Moscow will hold talks on March 21-22.

“The current price of Brent crude has come down to $73 per barrel whereas the Russian crude oil price remained at $52 in February 2023, which has further lowered between $42-48 in the international market,” sources within the industry told the publication.

They urged Pakistan refineries to purchase Russian oil on their own in compliance with the G7 countries’ regulations. However, the government is trying to secure a GtG deal below the $60/barrel price cap imposed by G7 countries.

Under the GtG deal, Petroleum Division wants to lock the deal at close to $50/barrel, $10/barrel below the cap price. The G7 countries had imposed a price cap on Russian oil in the wake of the war on Ukraine.

Some official sources say that Russia wants to confirm if Pakistan really wants to purchase its crude as there is no written direction from Pakistan’s top man to purchase the Russian crude. However, Pakistani officials are exploring options to purchase crude from Moscow under the direction of Pakistan’s prime minister.

“So far Russia has not indicated what discount it will offer.”

The Russian side will finalise with PSO all the prerequisites before inking an agreement that includes the mode of payment, shipping cost with premium, and insurance cost. The officials said that Russia’s PSC may offer a discount on the base price in its talks with the PSO’s technical team.

They added that the shipping of crude oil from Russian ports would take 30 days and an additional per barrel transportation cost would be $10-15/barrel.

The government does not want to divulge the mode of payment to Russia against the import of crude oil. However, the authorities are weighing their options to either use Pakistan National Shipping Corporation ships for transporting crude from the Russian port or to use the Russian tankers.

“We also have to keep in mind the landed cost of Russian crude as the crude vessel will arrive in 30 days, owing to which per barrel shipping cost would hover at $10-15,” the official said, adding that Moscow has not agreed on the discount yet. “We fear that the maximum discount would be offset by the shipping cost of the crude oil.”

However, State Minister for Petroleum Musadik Malik in a televised presser said that Pakistan would get a 30% discount on crude oil prices. Malik, while talking on Geo News programme Capital talk last week, said 80-85% of negotiations with Russia were completed.

“Our commercial deal is in the final stages, and by the month of March the entire commercial deal will be negotiated,” he said. “In April, we will give them the first shipping order. The first cargo of crude oil from Russia will arrive in by the end of April,” the state minister said.

The minister revealed that the country would receive one-third of its crude oil imports from Russia at a concessional rate “the impact of which will be translated to the people.”

“The first crude oil vessel from Russia will arrive at the end of next month of April as a test cargo to assess the landed cost of crude as compared to the cargo Pakistan gets from ADNOC and Saudi Aramco. Pakistan has sought a 30% discount in Russian crude base price.”

In case, the test ship’s cost is found low enough to bring down the prices of petroleum products, Pakistan would give a green signal for the import of Russian oil in a month which may be 2-4 cargos.

Since Pakistan is facing a US dollar liquidity crunch, it would pay Russia in the currencies of friendly countries that include China, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The officials said that the ship carrying Russian crude will have the NICL’s (National Insurance Company Limited) insurance and Pakistan Reinsurance Company Limited (PakRE) will reinsure the asset (ship with crude oil).

The State Bank of Pakistan, which earlier showed hesitance for any transaction with Russian banks keeping in view the G7 regulations and the US and EU countries, has now shown a willingness to talk with the Russian counter bank over a payment mechanism for oil import in three currencies other than dollars.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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