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Gold price hits new life-high of Rs188,600 per tola in Pakistan

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  • Pakistani gold remains pricier than world markets.
  • Traders see local gold price touching Rs200,000 per tola.
  • Per tola price of silver remains flat at Rs2,150.

Gold was unstoppable on Wednesday too as it nailed yet another life-high with its safe-haven appeal growing stronger amid rupee depreciation and a dollar dearth.

According to All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA), the price of gold soared by Rs900 per tola and Rs772 per 10 grams to reach Rs188,600 and Rs161,694 respectively.

Based on the difference in price compared to the Dubai market, Pakistani gold is pricier than the world markets.

Traders see the gold price touching Rs200,000 per tola due to the rupee devaluation against the US dollar under the current cycle as well as the non-availability of the greenback.

The inflow of $6-8 billion from multilateral and bilateral creditors will burst the gold price bubble in Pakistan, market observers said.

Meanwhile, the price of silver per tola remained flat at Rs2,150. Likewise, the 10-gram silver price was almost unchanged at Rs1,843.27.

Gold prices extended their New Year rally to jump more than 1% and hit their highest since mid-June on Wednesday, helped by a weaker dollar and growing expectations of less aggressive interest rate hikes at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings. 

Spot gold rose 1.2% to $1,862.32 per ounce by 1119 GMT, hitting its highest since June 13. US gold futures also gained 1.2% to $1,868.30.

The dollar index, meanwhile, slipped 0.6%, making gold less expensive for overseas investors. There is some optimism in the market ahead of the release of minutes from the Fed’s December meeting later in the day, Kinesis Money external analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said. 

“Majority of investors are betting on a 0.25% rate hike in the next Fed meeting, differently from a few weeks ago, when another 0.50% rate was given as almost sure.”

Pakistan’s inflation figures for December were released on Monday, with markets now pricing in a chance the central bank might hike interest rates by a full 50-100 basis points on January 23.

Although gold is considered a hedge against higher inflation and a safe store of value in times of uncertainty, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

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Pakistan has amassed $14.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

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State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) statistics, which was made public on May 3, shows that the country’s foreign exchange reserves increased significantly to $14.45 billion.

A noteworthy increase of $1.11 billion to $9.12 billion was made in the SBP’s reserves.

The foreign exchange reserves that commercial banks possessed also experienced a notable surge, rising by $2.86 billion to $5.33 billion.

As per the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan got the $3 billion standby arrangement last month, including the much-awaited $1.1 billion final tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Following the successful conclusion of the second review by the Executive Board of the IMF under Stand-By Arrangement (SBA),” the SBP stated that it had been awarded Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 828 million, or $1.1 billion in value.

SBP reserves for the week ending on May 3, 2024, will show the payout, according to the central bank.

The second review of Pakistan’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) was finished by the IMF Executive Board one day earlier, enabling a $3 billion increase in total disbursements under the contract.

According to a statement from the IMF, “the completion of the second and final review ref­lects the authorities’ stronger policy efforts under the SBA, which have supported the stabilization of the economy and the return of modest growth.”

“Policy and reform efforts by the authorities, including strict adherence to fiscal targets, are necessary to move Pakistan from stabilization to a strong and sustainable recovery,” the statement continued.

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In April, worker remittances rose by 27.9 percent year over year.

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Based on the central bank’s data, the United Arab Emirates (US$ 542.3 million), the United Kingdom (US$ 403.2 million), Saudi Arabia (US$ 712.0 million), and the United States of America (US$ 329.2 million) were the top four countries from which remittance inflows in April 2024 originated.

The SBP said in a statement that “for the first ten months of the current fiscal year, workers’ remittances increased by 3.5 percent cumulatively, with inflow of US$ 23.8 billion, as compared to the same period last year.”

Previous records show that in March 2024, remittances from overseas workers totaled US$3 billion.

Regarding expansion, remittances rose by 16.4% annually and 31.3 percent monthly during the month under consideration.

Comparing the first nine months of the fiscal year 2023–24 to the same period previous year, an inflow of US$ 21.0 billion in worker remittances was observed, up from US$ 20.8 billion.

Saudi Arabia (US$703.1 million), the United Arab Emirates (US$548.5 million), the United Kingdom (US$461.5 million), and the United States of America (US$372.5 million) were the top sources of workers’ remittance inflows on March 24.

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Problem with SIM blocking: FBR to “move” court against Telcos and PTA

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Unless telecom operators block the SIMs of 500,000 non-filers by May 15, FBR is reportedly planning legal action against them.

According to sources, the FBR has conferred with its legal counsel in order to challenge telecom providers, such as PTA, in the Islamabad High Court for failing to abide by directives to disable non-filers’ SIM cards.

Sources also stated that the FBR and Ministry of Finance have decided to take legal action against PTA and telecom providers for failing to carry out the directives to block the SIM cards of non-filers even after more than ten days had passed.

Following a nationwide impasse over the barring of recognized non-filers’ mobile SIMs, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and telecom operators took action.

Tight sources on the matter disclosed that, citing operational and technical challenges, the Cellular Mobile Companies declined to disable the SIM cards of 506,000 taxpayers who had been recognized as non-compliant.

Reportedly, telecom providers argued in a statement that executing FBR’s regulations presents legal challenges.

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) called for the authorities to disable the SIM cards of over 506,000 identified non-compliant taxpayers nationwide on April 30, issuing a general income tax order. This is important to note.

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