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11-month economic slump ends, as exports increase in Sept

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  • 4.2% increase was recorded in Sept this year.
  • In Sept last year, exports stood at $2.437 billion.
  • Imports fell sharply by 25.3% to $3.95 billion.

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported an increase in exports by 1.15% to $2.465 billion in September 2023, for the first time in 11 months, overturning a lengthy slump attributed to the country’s dwindling economy.

According to PBS data reported by The News, the exports stood at $2.437 billion in the same month last year. The growth, it added, was modest but significant, as it happened in the wake of 11 consecutive months of year-on-year reductions ranging from 3.25% to 26.2%.

As the exports rose by 4.2% over those in August 2023 which stood at $2.366 billion, the turnaround was apparent on a monthly basis, the PBS mentioned in its report.

The shift was seen last month in August when the pace of decline slowed to single-digit from earlier sharp declines seen since October last year. Notably, year-on-year in October 2022, exports reduced by 3.25%, November 17.6%, December 16.3%, January 14.15%, February 22.7%, March 14.6%, April 26.2%, May 16.2%, June 19.1%, July 8.09%, August 4.7%, but now in September it increased by 1.15%.

The imports fell sharply by 25.3% to $3.95 billion in September 2023 from a year ago, mainly due to lower oil prices, reduced demand for machinery and raw materials, and tight import controls by the government to curb the trade deficit.

On a monthly basis, imports dropped by 12.7% from $4.5 billion in August 2023. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed by 47.9% to $1.49 billion in September 2023 from $2.86 billion in September 2022. In August 2023, the deficit was $2.16 billion.

In the first quarter of the current fiscal year (July-September 2023-24), exports fell by 3.8% to $6.9 billion, while its imports declined by 25.4% to $12.2 billion, compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year. The trade deficit shrank by 42.15% to $5.29 billion in the first quarter of FY24 from $9.16 billion in the first quarter of FY23.

In FY23, Pakistan’s trade deficit fell by 43% to $27.55 billion from $48.35 billion in FY22, as total exports dipped by 12.7% to $27.7 billion and imports contracted by 31% to $55.3 billion.

The data also showed that the trade deficit in services widened by 174% to $463 million in July-August 2023-24 from $169 million in July-August 2022-23 due to higher demand for foreign services as the economy reopened.

From July to August 2023-24, Pakistan spent $1.6 billion on the services it hired from abroad and offered its services of $1.14 billion. Similarly, in the same period last year, exports were $1.1 billion and imports of $1.28 billion. During these two months, exports increased by 2% while imports up by 24.7%. In August, services exports were valued at $600 million, while imports amounted to $789 million, resulting in a deficit of $189 million.

In July 2023, exports were at $535 million, imports at $809 million, and the deficit at $274 million. During the month under review, services exports increased by 12.14%, and imports decreased by 2.45% compared to the previous month. Comparing August 2023’services trade performance to the same month of the previous year, exports were up by 2.34%, and imports also increased by 9.1%.

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IMF does not list Pakistan till September 18.

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Pakistan’s 37-month Extended Fund Facility Arrangement (EFF) of around $7 billion is not included in the IMF schedule for the executive board meeting, which is scheduled for September 9, 13, and 18. This information is based on the Fund’s website.

A deal on the 37-month loan package was agreed in July between Pakistan and the IMF.

The Fund’s Executive Board must approve the new programme before it can be implemented, but it should allow Pakistan to “cement macroeconomic stability and create conditions for stronger, more inclusive, and resilient growth,” the statement reads.

“The programme aims to capitalise on the hard-won macroeconomic stability achieved over the past year by furthering efforts to strengthen public finances, reduce inflation, rebuild external buffers, and remove economic distortions to spur private sector-led growth,” the IMF statement stated, citing Nathan Porter, the head of the Fund’s mission to Pakistan.

Notably, the administration is allegedly trying to get important allies like China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to roll over $12 billion in loans.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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