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Pakistan plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired power, move away from gas

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  • Energy minister says LNG is no longer part of long-term plan.
  • Country plans increasing domestic coal-fired power capacity to 10GW in medium-term. 
  • Pakistan’s annual LNG imports fell to lowest levels in five years.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming years, its energy minister told Reuters on Monday, as it seeks to ease a crippling foreign-exchange crisis.

A shortage of natural gas, which accounts for over a third of the country’s power output, plunged large areas into hours of darkness last year. A surge in global prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an onerous economic crisis had made LNG unaffordable for Pakistan.

“LNG is no longer part of the long-term plan,” Pakistan Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan told Reuters, adding that the country plans to increase domestic coal-fired power capacity to 10 gigawatts (GW) in the medium-term, from 2.31 GW currently.

Pakistan’s plan to switch to coal to provide its citizens reliable electricity underscores challenges in drafting effective decarbonisation strategies, at a time when some developing countries are struggling to keep lights on.

Despite power demand increasing in 2022, Pakistan’s annual LNG imports fell to the lowest levels in five years as European buyers elbowed out price-sensitive consumers.

“We have some of the world’s most efficient regasified LNG-based power plants. But we don’t have the gas to run them,” Dastgir said in an interview.

The South Asian nation, which is battling a wrenching economic crisis and is in dire need of funds, is seeking to reduce the value of its fuel imports and protect itself from geopolitical shocks, he said.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have fallen to $2.9 billion, barely enough to cover three weeks of imports.

“It’s this question of not just being able to generate energy cheaply, but also with domestic sources, that is very important,” Dastgir said.

The Shanghai Electric Thar plant, a 1.32 GW capacity plant that runs on domestic coal and is funded under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), started producing power last week. The CPEC is a part of Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative.

In addition to the coal-fired plants, Pakistan also plans to boost its solar, hydro and nuclear power fleet, Dastgir said, without elaborating.

If the proposed plants are constructed, it could also widen the gap between Pakistan’s power demand and installed power generation capacity, potentially forcing the country to idle plants.

The maximum power demand met by Pakistan during the year ended June 2022 was 28.25 GW, more than 35% lower than power generation capacity of 43.77 GW.

It was not immediately clear how Pakistan will finance the proposed coal fleet, but Dastgir said setting up new plants will depend on “investor interest,” which he expects to increase when newly commissioned coal-fired plants are proved viable.

Financial institutions in China and Japan, which are among the biggest financiers of coal units in developing countries, have been backing out of funding fossil-fuel projects in recent years amid pressure from activists and Western governments.

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Saudi investment and falling inflation cause Pakistani stocks to soar.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased by more than 1.50 percent on Monday, driven by the possibility of significant Saudi investment. Investors are now more optimistic that the central bank will soon begin a cycle of interest rate cuts, and another IMF programme is very much on the horizon.

The KSE-100 Index increased by 910.25 points, or 1.27 percent, by 1:29 pm PST to close at 72,812.34, having reached an intraday high of 73,060.74.

Additionally, on Monday, Ibrahim Al Mubarak, the deputy minister of investments for Saudi Arabia, stated that his nation preferred Pakistan’s economic growth and thought it was the best place to make investments.

The news is definitely good for equities that have been cheap since their market capitalization peaked in 2017, as many industries—energy, agriculture, technology, and mining being the primary ones—can now attract much-needed foreign investment.

The inflation of Pakistan

The consumer price index (CPI) for April increased by 17.3 percent, the lowest level since May 2022. This led to the benchmark index rising by 1244.45 points, or 1.76 percent, during the last session on Friday of last week.

This indicates that, like in March, annual inflation declined for the fourth straight month in April and stayed below the current record high interest rates of 22 percent. like a result, the State Bank of Pakistan may decide to begin reducing interest rates at its upcoming meeting on June 10.

While the pattern seen on Friday was also influenced by a market correction, the persistence of this most recent upswing indicates that investors are anticipating an economic recovery in the context of falling inflation and impending Saudi Arabian investment.

IMF APPEAL

In the meantime, the IMF continues to play a significant role in Pakistan, influencing not just public policy but also private sector initiatives and the lives of common citizens. Furthermore, the market was undoubtedly helped by the world’s largest lender’s most recent announcement of the upcoming transaction negotiations.

The Bretton Woods Institution said on Sunday that a delegation was scheduled to visit Pakistan this month to talk about a new initiative, prior to Islamabad starting the annual budget-making process for the upcoming fiscal year.

Although Pakistan’s $3 billion short-term programme helped prevent a sovereign default last month, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration has emphasised the necessity for a new, longer-term initiative.

The IMF responded to Reuters via email, saying that a mission is anticipated to visit Pakistan in May to review the FY25 budget, policies, and reforms under a proposed new programme for the wellbeing of all Pakistanis.

MERCURABLE BY SAMPLE

Meanwhile, it has been claimed that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would pay a visit to Pakistan later this month. The kingdom has been making massive investments all over the world in an effort to become a more significant player in world affairs.

It makes sense that after years of political unrest and economic hardship, his presence and the Saudi investment will aid Pakistan in establishing itself as a desirable location for investors.

The explanation is straightforward: Saudi Arabia continues to be a significant actor in world politics. Nonetheless, the globe has begun to view MBS, the crown prince’s nickname, as a role model due to his policies of diversifying his nation’s economy and elevating the kingdom to a centre of commerce.

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Saudi investment is most suited for Pakistan, according to Ibrahim Al-Mubarak

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Ibrahim Al Mubarak, the deputy minister of investments for Saudi Arabia, stated on Monday that his nation thought Pakistan was the best place to invest and wanted to see it flourish economically.

Speaking at the opening ceremony of the two-day Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Investment Forum 2024 in Islamabad, he stated that Saudi entrepreneurs were open to making investments in a variety of industries and that a significant portion of Pakistanis were contributing significantly to the growth of the kingdom.

ON THE DRIVING SEAT: PRIVATE SECTOR

Muhammad Aurangzeb, the finance minister, stated in his speech that the private sector should take the “driving seat” in order to revitalise the economy.

The finance minister stated, “The ministers and bureaucracy would have to lay back,” adding that the role of the government was to establish a framework.

According to Aurangzeb, the finance ministry was always there to support traders and company owners as he pursued economic reforms as part of the government’s objective.

Using the better rupee exchange rate as an example, he claimed that successful policies were bringing about economic stability.

The minister also mentioned that the government was trying to draw in foreign investment, but he also emphasised the need for continued policies to maintain economic stability and urged collaboration between the public and private sectors to build a robust economy.

Investing in Saudi Arabia

A high-level group of 50 Saudi businesspeople and investors, together with government representatives, arrived in Pakistan earlier on Sunday to attend an event aimed at encouraging investment from the oil-rich Gulf State.

Continue reading: Saudi entrepreneurs arrive in Islamabad as Pakistan seeks foreign investment

This happened only a few days after Saudi Arabia hosted Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for a Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development in Riyadh. During his visit, he also had talks on a number of topics with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

SUMMARY CONVERSATIONS

The audience was informed by Commerce Minister Jam Kamal that every attempt would be made to facilitate international investors and have fruitful discussions between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Representatives from thirty Saudi firms made the comments while in Pakistan looking for opportunities to engage in a range of industries, such as agriculture, aviation, human resources, and minerals.

Islamabad has been depending on Saudi investment to spark economic activity in the nation, which will not only boost investor confidence domestically but also aid in persuading businessmen from other countries to prioritise Pakistan, given that the country’s economy is crippled by inflation and high interest rates.

Not a shortage of proficient labourers

In his speech, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Petroleum, Musadik Malik, emphasised the country’s recent rapid progress as well as the necessity of deepening the two countries’ already-existing bilateral relations.

He claimed that Gwadar would soon become a global transit hub and that Pakistan possessed abundant mineral riches. Malik assured the audience that Pakistan did not lack skilled labour.

It’s a narrative in progress. Details will be provided later.

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Nine months yields Rs66 billion for Pakistan Railways.

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They stated that the passenger and goods trains generated the majority of the department’s Rs 66 billion in revenue, with additional cash coming from other departments.

In comparison to the previous year, when 86 trains were in service, Pakistan Railways is currently operating about 96 passenger trains, according to their statement. Comparably, the number of goods trains operated this year reached seven, compared to an average of 3.75 the previous year.

As work on the Mainline-I (ML-I) project gets underway, things will be more streamlined, according to the sources who stated the department stressed that the problem of employee salary delays has now been rectified.

Responding to a query, they stated that only six minor accidents involving no fatalities occurred over the nation’s whole railway network in the previous three months, and that Pakistan Railways had increased preventative efforts to lower passenger train mishaps.

According to them, the efforts made to prevent trespassing at unmanned level crossings and unauthorised sites have resulted in a significant drop in accidents.

The department’s primary concern is passenger safety, thus our workers are constantly keeping an eye on the nation’s railway tracks and thoroughly inspecting the trains, the sources stated.

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