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Rupee slide slows down due to current account numbers

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  • Rupee closes at 220.95 after losing 0.03% in interbank market.
  • Analyst says rupee’s outlook has improved significantly.
  • Since the start of fiscal year 2022-23, rupee has lost Rs16.1.

KARACHI: The downward slide of the Pakistani rupee slowed on Thursday as the encouraging current account deficit number has lent some support to the local unit.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the local currency closed at Rs220.95 in the interbank market after depreciating registering a meagre loss of 0.03% against the greenback compared to Wednesday’s close of 220.88.

The market took positive cues from the current account deficit released a day earlier, which narrowed 37% to $2.2 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year due to lower imports and a rise in exports.

Commenting on the rupee’s movement, Pakistan-Kuwait Head of Research Samiullah Tariq said better than expected current account deficit number has improved the sentiment. “Slight movement was exhibited by the rupee,” he said.

Regarding the outlook, Tariq said it had improved significantly with a lower current account deficit number.

Since the start of the fiscal year 2022-23, the rupee has lost Rs16.1 or 7.85% against the US currency — which leaves its imprint on every corner of the global economy as it is the currency in which vital raw materials are bought and sold.

Dar rules out need for ‘steps’ to support rupee

A day earlier, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar ruled out the need for any particular supportive measures for the rupee, stoking optimism among traders that the ‘Darnomics’ will soon be able to crack the country’s monetary conundrum.

“The rupee has been heavily undervalued,” Dar said during an interview with Bloomberg in Washington, where he has been attending annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

“It is due to speculation — and some players in the market have been responsible for that,” he said.

“I thank those players in the market who have realised that that game at the cost of the national currency will not continue,” he asserted while highlighting that the exchange rate stabilised after traders learned he would take office.

Responding to a query if he was planning to take any “specific steps” to boost the rupee, he said: “I don’t think so. We don’t have the luxury of physically spending foreign exchange — it’s very scarce at the moment.”

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Over 500 points are lost by PSX stocks during intraday trading.

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The market saw a bearish trend as it dropped more than 500 points, just hours after Pakistan’s Stock Exchange (PSX) reached a new milestone by reaching the 73,000 mark.

As compared to the previous close of 72,742.75 points, the KSE-100 index dropped to 72,177.22 points, or 565.52 points or 0.78% lower.
Expectations of an interest rate drop of up to 100 basis points during today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, according to Intermarket Securities director of research CFA Muhammad Saad Ali, are driving market confidence.

The market is also being driven, he continued, by favorable news flow on upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new program.

Last Friday, the late-session purchasing fueled a 1% advance in the stocks, which helped them close close to 73,000 points. Dealers reported this.

Closed at 72,742.75 points on Friday, the benchmark KSE-100 index saw a gain of 771.35 points, or 1.07%.

Notwithstanding the turbulent session, according to Chase Securities analyst Muhammad Rizwan, “the market rebounded with a strong start and achieved a new all-time high”.

“This impressive performance was driven by significant contributions from various sectors: Fertiliser added 386 points, Commercial banks contributed 174 points, the Power sector provided 112 points, and Cement added 93 points, collectively reversing the previous negative close and boosting market sentiment.”

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Despite global tides, Pakistan’s economy is recovering, according to Governor SBP

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Ahmad, who was speaking at the ICMA Pakistan Members Convocation, emphasized the country’s economy’s outstanding development while also highlighting the difficult macroeconomic environment of the previous year, which was marked by rising inflation, depleting foreign exchange reserves, pressure on exchange rates, and increased uncertainty.

Nonetheless, in the present times, the PKR has stabilized and the stock market is rising to unprecedented heights, reserves have increased to around US$8 billion despite large debt repayments, and inflation is dramatically decreasing.

Ahmad gave the government and SBP credit for their unwavering commitment to addressing macroeconomic difficulties head-on for this reversal.

Ahmad emphasized that the government’s efforts to reduce spending and achieve fiscal consolidation, together with the need for unpopular but necessary actions like the SBP’s increase of the policy rate to 22%, are producing beneficial results.

As global shocks like climate change, technology improvements, and cyber threats become more complex, he emphasized the significance of new viewpoints and creative solutions in tackling long-standing economic concerns.

Congratulating the graduating accounting professionals, Ahmad emphasized the importance of having a thorough understanding of accounting, finance, and economics in order to create workable solutions. He also urged the professionals to take a proactive approach to addressing new difficulties.

Ahmad emphasized the value of leadership abilities in policymaking and urged graduates to positively impact Pakistan’s economic landscape by working hard, being devoted to excellence, and contributing their full effort.

Along with giving a hearty welcome to Governor Jameel Ahmad and other SBP dignitaries, ICMA Pakistan President Shehzad Ahmed Malik also praised the SBP team’s efforts to stabilize the currency. With that, Ahmad presented the graduating CMAs with their degrees.

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The IMF board is anticipated to approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

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The IMF executive board meeting is scheduled to go until May 3, according to specifics. Based on the sources, it is expected that the international lender will approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

The State Bank of Pakistan is anticipated to obtain the final tranche from the IMF tomorrow, following approval, they added.

On July 12, 2023, Pakistan took advantage of a $3 billion loan package offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Thus far, Pakistan has been granted two installments totaling $1.9 billion: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

On the last assessment of a $3 billion loan plan, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month.

Following their week-long visit to Islamabad, which ended on March 19, the IMF delegation made the announcement.

Global lender expressed its optimism that the incoming caretaker administration and central bank of Pakistan would persist in their efforts to stabilize the country’s economy, complimenting them on their “strong program implementation.”

In order to further solidify economic and financial stability, the new government is dedicated to carrying out the policy initiatives that were initiated under the existing Stand-By Arrangement for the balance of this year, the IMF official stated.

In June of last year, the IMF granted Pakistan’s economic stabilization program support through a critical nine-month agreement.

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