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Dollar gains further ground to near historic high against rupee

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  • Rupee registers losses for 15th consecutive session.
  • Rupee falls to 239.71 after losing 0.03% in interbank market.
  • Local unit is nearing historic low against dollar.

KARACHI: Registering losses for the 15th consecutive session, the Pakistani rupee lost further ground Thursday as the US dollar neared a historic high.

The rupee fell to 239.71 after losing 0.03%, down in value from the previous session’s close of 239.65, in the interbank market..

The rupee now stands only Rs0.23 short of an all-time low level of Rs239.94 on July 28, 2022.

The rupee, which has been one of the worst performing currencies in the emerging markets, has depreciated by nearly 9% so far this month due to wide-ranging factors.

Analyst Yousuf Rahman at KASB Securities told The News that debt servicing was one of the reasons behind the rupee’s decline as gross financing needs for the year are estimated at $32 billion.

Rahman also noted that floods have forced the government to import vegetables, grains, and cotton to replace damaged crops — increasing the pressure on the rupee.

“This has further added strain on the import bill and there have been news of consistent dollar outflows from grey channels, particularly through the Afghanistan border,” Rahman said.

He said the fundamentals and sentiments for the battered rupee won’t improve until anticipated inflows from friendly countries happen.

“Once additional financing is received from the World Bank, ADB [Asian Development Bank], and allied countries, the rupee may stabilise around the 215 mark,” Rahman added.

The revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme and the release of a $1.1 billion loan tranche from the Fund last month supported the rupee briefly in late August. However, the currency is again struggling.

“Dollar strength and high commodity prices are impacting regional and major currencies,” said Komal Mansoor, the head of research at Tresmark.

“[The] Indian rupee also traded above 80/dollar this week, and they have spent $90 billion to defend their already stable currency. Yuan, euro, and sterling have all depreciated to multi-year lows,” Mansoor said.

But the local currency hitting new lows is worrisome for the economy because it shows the government’s inability to stabilise forex reserves and reverse negative sentiment, he added.

“Some sort of a two-way direction is crucial for the currency”.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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