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KSE-100 index plunges over 650 points on fears of monetary tightening

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  • KSE-100 index closes at 42,440.25 after losing 1.53%.
  • Delay in tough economic decisions and political uncertainty have unnerved investors.
  • Shares of 314 companies were traded during the session.

KARACHI: The benchmark KSE-100 index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) plunged on Monday, the first day of the rollover week, as an across-the-board selling spree pushed share prices into the red zone.

The delay in tough economic decisions by the coalition government and heightened political uncertainty has unnerved investors. Moreover, the Pakistani rupee remains in a downward spiral with the US dollar gaining another 0.39% on Monday to close at 200.93.

The index remained jittery over concerns regarding monetary policy tightening which was to be announced after the session.

It is worth mentioning that contrary to market expectations the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised the benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 13.75% for the next six weeks in order to stabilise inflation and economic growth.

Moreover, uncertainty regarding the ongoing talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission for the revival of the stalled multibillion-dollar programme took a toll on the market.

At close, the benchmark KSE-100 index closed at 42,440.25 after losing 660.46 points or 1.53%.

A report from Arif Habib Limited noted that the market witnessed a bloodbath session as investors remained bearish throughout the day.

“The benchmark KSE-100 index nosedived from the beginning of the session as an increase in the political noise over the weekend and uncertainty regarding resumption of IMF programme along with continued depreciation of Pakistani rupee against the US dollar and rate hike in the Monetary policy, shattered investors’ confidence,” the report noted.

The brokerage house noted that the volumes remained dull on the mainboard although hefty volumes were observed in third-tier stocks.

Sectors contributing to the performance included cement (-120.8 points), fertiliser (-89 points), exploration and production (-79.9 points), technology (-72.5 points), and banks (-63.1 points)

Shares of 314 companies were traded during the session. At the close of trading, 48 scrips closed in the green, 250 in the red, and 16 remained unchanged.

Overall trading volumes rose to 118.98 million shares compared with Friday’s tally of 189.92 million. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs3.57 billion.

Silk Bank was the volume leader with 9.97 million shares traded, gaining Rs0.04 to close at Rs1.32. It was followed by WorldCall Telecom with 7.62 million shares traded, losing Rs0.09 to close at Rs1.50 and K-Electric with 6.12 million shares traded, losing Rs0.08 to close at Rs2.50.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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